Over the next few months, the globe might see an uptick in tropical cyclone activity thanks to an El Niño that is showing signs of asserting itself more forcefully.
That doesn’t mean more hurricanes everywhere, though: While El Niño tends to boost activity in the Pacific Ocean, it clamps down on storm formation in the tropical Atlantic. That link has at least one hurricane forecaster calling for a very quiet Atlantic hurricane season this year — possibly the quietest since the mid-20th century.
While El Niño is a cyclical climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean — marked by warmer ocean temperatures in the tropics and a weakening of the usual easterly trade winds — it can impact weather around the globe.
El Niño activity is notoriously difficult to predict in the springtime, and signs around this time last year of a strong El Niño in the works didn’t pan out. So forecasters are cautious.
Even if activity is below normal in the Atlantic, forecasters are quick to caution, there is still potential for a pocket to open up and bring the right ingredients together to form a devastating storm.
http://www.weather.com/science/news/el-nino-strength-what-that-means-for-hurricanes
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