this year, unruffled by the weather office's prediction that rainfall in the crucial June-September period would be below
par.
"I am very confident of our forecast of a normal monsoon this
season with a model error of plus-minus 4%.We started the process of studying
monsoon since December, and have been getting results of normal monsoon
consistently on dynamical and statistical model ..
Skymet also clarified that El Nino won't have any major impact on the four-month
monsoon season, when 70%-80% of the annual rains occur. Both the agencies
usually update their forecast in June and July due to changing climatic
patterns. Jatin Singh, Skymet's CEO, said there's lot at stake with a number of
insurance, telecom, energy and agri companies relying on data from him.
"We have the right combination of technology and experienced people who have
been given us very accurate weather data. We will come up with the next update on June 1, and
foresee good pre-monsoon showers and early onset of monsoon this year," he said
reassuringly.
El Nino is likely to continue into the summer months and taper off thereafter.
It is not likely to affect monsoon's performance," Singh added. The private
weather forecaster had in the previous year forecast rains to be 94% of average
in April with actual rainfall being 88%. The weather office had forecast 95% in
April, but scaled it down to 87% in August.
India's weather office
defines average, or normal, rainfall between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average
of 89 cm for the entire four-month season. But the official weather department feels
that, as predicted by most global models, El Nino is likely to persist during
the 2015 monsoon season. D Sivananda Pai, head of long-range forecasting at the
India Meteorological Department, said last week that there's a 70% chance of the
phenomenon forming this year.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/monsoon-forecast-skymet-and-india-meteorological-department-differ-over-el-nino-impact/articleshow/47064153.cms
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