2013 Hurricane Forecast: 9 Hurricanes, 18 Named Storms
Florida Keys Keynoter | ByPosted: 04/13/2013 7:14 pm EDT | Updated: 04/14/2013 8:05 pm EDT
The first forecast for the six-month 2013 hurricane season came out Wednesday, and it doesn't look much different than what happened in the 2012 season.
Professor William Gray and research scientist Philip Kloztbach from Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science say the Atlantic basin can expect 18 named storms, 95 named storm days, nine hurricanes, 40 hurricane days, four major hurricanes (sustained winds of 111 mph or higher) and nine major hurricane days.
Last year for the season that runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, there were 19 named storms, nine of which attained hurricane strength at some point.
But it was the seventh consecutive year a hurricane didn't make landfall in Florida, which National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said is a record dating back to 1851.
The main reason for this year's forecast, the Colorado State team said, is largely due to an expected lack of an El Nino.
A weak El Nino weather pattern is when warm water temperatures in the Pacific tend to push damp weather east. A strong El Nino tends to minimize hurricanes during the storm season.
The Colorado State researchers say there is a 72 percent chance that a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) could make landfall along the "entire U.S. coastline." That goes down to 48 percent for the "U.S. East Coast including peninsula Florida."
On the Gulf of Mexico side, they forecast a 47 percent chance of landfall from Florida's Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.
Last year, the primary storm to affect the Keys was Hurricane Isaac, which blew through as a tropical storm Aug. 26 and 27. Sustained winds in the Keys were 45 mph to 50 mph. Damage was minor but a lot of rain fell.
Hurricane Sandy, which caused billions of dollars in damage and killed more than 100 people in the Northeast in late October, only mildly affected the Keys, as just strong winds from Sandy's outer bands were felt.
Gray and Klotzbach will update their seasonal forecast on June 3 and Aug. 2. The National Hurricane Center issues its first hurricane season forecast toward the end of May.
Sandy is retired as a storm name
Sandy is being retired from the list of tropical storm names because of the catastrophic damage its massive size and strength caused along the East Coast last year.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials say the name Sara will take its place. Sandy was retired Thursday from the official list of Atlantic Basin tropical storm names by the World Meteorological Organization's hurricane committee.
Storm names are recycled every six years unless they're retired because of extreme damage or a considerable number of casualties.
Sandy is the 77th storm name taken off the list since 1954. The National Hurricane Center has attributed 72 deaths from Maryland to New Hampshire directly to Sandy, though some estimates were higher. It wiped out entire neighborhoods and was one of the country's costliest natural disasters. ___
