This would be a fine country if it only had water,” observes a settler looking at the barren west Texas plains. “So would Hell,” replies a despairing farmer.
That old Texas joke probably originated in the 1950s, when the state was baked by its most relentless drought in recorded history. Last year, rain kept clear of the region again, and scientists predict that the entire North American southwest will become increasingly drought-prone as climate change proceeds1.
Reliable forecasts of future ‘megadroughts’ would be a boon to farmers and water managers. But results presented last week at the annual assembly of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna suggest that such forecasts are still beyond the reach of current climate models.
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