Tuesday, April 21, 2015

100% Weather Accuracy Impossible

How is the forecast of the southwest monsoon done? 

Long range prediction of the monsoon is based on a statistical method. The method involves identification of predictive signals (predictors) that have been shown to have a stable historical relationship with the 'predict', the monsoon in this case. At present, the IMD uses eight predictors. These include sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic and equatorial southeast Indian Ocean and Central Pacific Ocean along  .. 

What is ENSO and how does it affect the Indian monsoon? 

El Nino Southern Oscillation refers to anomalously warm or cold sea surface temperatures that develops for long periods of time off the western coast of South America. El Nino or Pacific warm episode represents the warm phase of the oscillation while La Nina represents the cold phase. Although there is no one-to-one correspondence between ENSO and the Indian monsoon, the warm phase of ENSO is generally associated .. 

Despite advances in satellite technology, our knowledge about the atmosphere is still incomplete, hence 100% accuracy in weather prediction is not possible.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/despite-new-technology-100-accuracy-in-weather-prediction-is-not-possible/articleshow/46984155.cms

No comments:

Post a Comment