Three big changes in the weather are expected this week across the U.S., and many will appreciate the difference a week can make.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to bring rain to parts of the South, while the Southwest will finally see drier conditions.
Temperatures will also flip-flop. The West will experience temperatures closer to average for this time of year and the Northeast and Midwest will feel a warming trend after the recent cold shot.
Tropical Moisture Surges North
Forecast Rainfall Through Next Weekend
This map is intended to show areas where the heaviest rainfall potential exists through next weekend. Locally heavier rain amounts may occur.
A pattern shift is expected by midweek with moisture returning to the Gulf Coast.
Moist southeasterly winds will also interact with an area of low pressure aloft coming out of the Southwest to produce heavy rainfall in parts of the southern Plains later this week. This includes areas from eastern New Mexico to Texas and Oklahoma.
(MORE: Heavy Rain to Soak Southern Plains)
Wet conditions will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend, and it may be windy at times. Rain may also spread east into Louisiana, Arkansas, as well as parts of lower Mississippi Valley.
The rain will be welcome in many areas, as drought conditions have developed over the summer in much of Texas as well as Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
This Week's Forecast
Some spots are now in extreme and exceptional drought, even after seeing record rainfall during April, May and June.
(MORE: Exceptional Drought in Texas Again After Record Spring Floods)
Wildfires have also developed due to the persistent hot and dry conditions in portions of the Plains. The rainfall late this week could help firefighters and bring down the fire risk.
A few examples of the recent dryness:
- Houston is almost 5 inches below average in terms of rainfall since Sept. 1, as just over 2.5 inches has fallen.
- San Antonio has received less than half of their average expected rainfall since Sept. 1.
- Dallas has only measured a trace of rainfall so far in October.
There is also the chance that a low pressure system, perhaps with tropical characteristics, may develop in the Gulf of Mexico in the week ahead or this weekend.
Even without tropical cyclone development, the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms is still expected due to the abundant moisture pushing north.
Temperature Flip-Flops
Forecast Highs
A break from the record heat has arrived for much of the West and southern Plains. In addition, after a shot of cold air this weekend and into Monday in parts of the East, warmer temperatures will return.
The coldest air of the season so far made its way across the Midwest and into parts of the East this weekend.
Many areas saw their first frost and freeze with lows dropping into the 30s as far south as North Carolina and north Georgia. Lows tumbled into the 20s in parts of northern Minnesota and Michigan on Saturday. Parts of the Ohio Valley and northern New England saw lows in the 20s Sunday morning.
(MORE: Coldest Air of the Season)
Some areas from the northern Great Lakes into the interior Northeast have also seen their first snow of the season this weekend.
(PHOTOS: First Snow of the Season)
The chilly conditions will just be a distant memory by mid-to-late week across the East as highs and lows will rebound quickly to near and even above average.
(FORECAST: Indianapolis | Philadelphia | Atlanta)
High pressure will slide eastward this week and as it does, a more southerly flow will develop, allowing warmer temperatures to return. High temperatures will climb back into the 70s by Tuesday or Wednesday in the Ohio Valley, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Forecast Highs
Meanwhile, much of the West and southern Plains saw record high temperatures this last week courtesy of a ridge of high pressure.
(MORE: Record Heat in October in the West and Southern Plains)
A few cities saw their hottest temperature ever recorded in October including Little Rock, Arkansas, which reached 98 degrees on Oct. 15, and Colorado Springs, which tied its October record of 87 degrees on Oct. 11.
An all-time record high temperature for any month of the year was set in Camarillo, California, on Oct. 9 when the mercury climbed to 108 degrees.
Las Vegas crushed its record for number of days with a low in the 70s for October, with nine of them through Oct. 15.
The average temperature for Los Angeles month-to-date in October is more than 7 degrees above average and San Diego is more than 8 degrees above average.
Two areas of low pressure will move through the West through Wednesday, allowing temperatures to take a dip in most areas, so the record-breaking trend has come to an end.
(FORECAST: Medford, Oregon | Reno, Nevada | Salt Lake City)
After the storm systems move east temperatures will warm but are expected to remain closer to average for much of the week ahead compared with this past week.
Drier in the Southwest
This Week's Forecast
After flash flooding in portions of the Southwest this past week and this weekend a change is on the horizon. Some of the worst flooding was seen in California, where mudslides stranded motorists.
(MORE: Southwest Rain Forecast and Flood Threat)
The upper-atmospheric low that has plagued the region for two weeks has finally begun to push eastward. Another low pressure system is now bringing another round of rain to the West through early this week.
As the second system pushes east into the Plains, high pressure will bring a break from the rain by midweek to most of the Southwest. Portions of Arizona and New Mexico may not see the dry conditions until the end of the week.
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