Showing posts with label Dai Shi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dai Shi. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Pilger, Nebraska Twin Tornadoes: How They Happened and How Unusual They Were

The supercell that simultaneously spawned a pair of large tornadoes in Pilger, Nebraska, on Monday was a frightening sight. Let's delve into the science behind this situation and how often it occurs.

One Supercell: A Family of Tornadoes

Below is a radar loop of Monday's storm from the National Weather Service Doppler radar near Omaha, Nebraska. At left, the storm is shown with conventional reflectivity, with areas of rain and hail, whilestorm-relative velocity is shown at right, with areas of strong rotation indicated by areas of green shading very close to areas of red shading.
Pilger, Nebraska twin tornadoes radar loop
Radar reflectivity (left) and storm-relative velocity (right) radar loop from 3:47 p.m. to 4:26 p.m. CDT of the Pilger, Nebraska supercell spawning twin tornadoes on June 16, 2014. (Gibson Ridge/NWS-Omaha)
From that loop, it appears there were three separate tornadoes:
  • Tornado A first formed west of Stanton, Nebraska, then soon weakened north of Stanton as it curled toward the north.
  • Tornado B then formed east of Stanton and appears to have been the one that hit Pilger, Nebraska.
  • Tornado C then formed just southeast of the Pilger tornado, then wrapped northward tracking close to, or interacting with, tornado B.
According to tornado warnings and statements from the National Weather Service near Omaha, tornadoes from this supercell were sighted for at least one hour and 10 minutes from 3:46 p.m until 4:56 p.m. Central time, and continued for 30 minutes after the end of the radar loop above.
Supercell schematic
Schematic of a supercell's rear-flank downdraft and updraft.
The process of tornadogenesis in a supercell remains an active area of research, with the supercell's forward-flank downdraft (rain-cooled air), rear-flank downdraft (a surge of less cool, dry air at the western edge of the supercell) and low-level mesocyclone/updraft all possibly playing roles.
When the rear-flank downdraft surges and completely surrounds the updraft, cutting off warm, moist air, the first tornado will slowly fizzle and curl toward the left (for an east- or northeast-moving supercell). 
However, just to the southeast of the weakening tornado, a second tornado may form where the two downdrafts and the updraft meet. In this manner, you can have multiple tornadoes simultaneously form from the same storm: one typically weakening, while the other is maturing or strengthening.
This is like the evolution of a frontal system you'll see on weather maps on a much smaller scale.
Namely, a cold front, warm front and intensifying surface low (the first tornado) transitions to an occluded front, with an intense low slowly weakening (like the rear-flank downdraft choking off the warm inflow to the first tornado), followed by a new area of low pressure forming at the junction of the cold and warm fronts, where the next tornado forms. 
In this manner, a single, powerful supercell can produce multiple tornadoes over an hour or longer. These are known as tornado families.
Palm Sunday Twin Tornadoes Indiana
Massive double tornado near Dunlap, Indiana, on April 11, 1965. (Paul Huffman/Elkhart Truth via NOAA)

What's Unusual About the Pilger Twins?

Multiple tornadoes simultaneously from the same thunderstorm are not as unusual as they sound.
Multi-vortex tornadoes contain so-called suction vortices rotating around the main tornado. These suction vortices are typically thinner than the main tornado, but don't be fooled by that. They can cause intense damage, because their winds combine with the forward speed of the parent tornado. 
What was impressive and unusual about the Pilger tornadic supercell was the appearance of two distinct large, strong, long-lasting tornadoes at once, shown live on The Weather Channel.
"In all other cases I have seen, one tornado may last for a little while fairly close to another, but nothing like what happened (Monday)," said The Weather Channel senior meteorologist and veteran storm chaser Matt Crowther. "This is unique in my experience."
There is little doubt the research community will heavily examine this case.
"The atmospheric parameters for instability and supercell potential were extreme," said Stu Ostro, senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel. "That doesn't always result in strong tornadoes, as it's just one factor, but it did Monday, and something about that supercell resulted in the remarkable twin twisters."
Severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a hypothesis: incomplete cycling.
"The rear-flank downdraft (RFD) surge probably eased off and didn't choke off the Pilger tornado, yet the next tornado of the cycle formed south of Pilger," says Forbes. "The lack of a surging cold RFD allowed the Pilger tornado to keep going strong in tandem with the new one of the cycle to its south."
This brings to mind one of the most infamous tornado photos of all-time pictured above at right; the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday double tornado, which was snapped by a photographer from The Elkhart Truth.
One more recent example of a tornado family (or cyclical tornadogenesis) was the supercell spawning the Greensburg, Kansas EF5 tornado on May 4, 2007. The Greensburg tornado was only one of several that night in western Kansas.
Finally, did you know one supercell complex once produced seven tornadoes on one evening in one city? Coincidentally, this was also in the Cornhusker State, the "Night of the Twisters" in Grand Island, Nebraska on June 3, 1980.

website: http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/pilger-nebraska-twin-tornadoes-how-they-happened-20140617

Severe Weather Forecast: Tracking Tornadoes in Nebraska

BREAKING: We are tracking reported tornadoes on the ground in northeast Nebraska. See the breaking news feed below for details.

Severe Weather Live Ticker: Latest Updates

All tornado warnings, along with other relevant tweets from The Weather Channel and local National Weather Service offices in current threat areas, will appear here.  
Information updates automatically; no need to reload or refresh your browser. Time stamps on the left are in Eastern time; subtract one hour for Central time and two hours for Mountain time. For complete warning information and radar links, scroll above to see the radar imagery and clickable severe weather alerts links.




RECAP: Monday, June 16
The National Weather Service reports that at least two tornadoes touched down simultaneously in northeast Nebraska Monday as severe weather battered the Plains. Storm chasers streamed the twin tornadoes live on The Weather Channel before at least one of them slammed into the farming community of Pilger, Nebraska, about 75 miles northwest of Omaha. In all, there were at least 30 reports of tornadoes Monday and Monday night in four states (Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and North Dakota).
In addition, heavy rain and flash floods ravaged the Plains as well. As much as 8.43 inches of rain fell in Canton, South Dakota, a town just outside of Sioux Falls.
Unfortunately, more severe thunderstorms are likely in the days ahead. Here are the details on current and forecast severe weather for the next few days:
Background

Radar with Watches and Warnings

Radar with Watches and Warnings

Current Radar, Watches, Warnings (Midwest, East)

Shaded areas underneath any radar returns are watches, and small hollow outlines are warnings. Red shades (outlines) are tornado watches (warnings). Yellow shades (outlines) are severe thunderstorm watches (warnings). Flash flood warnings are shown as green outlines. The links below have radar and watch/warning information for the entire contiguous U.S.

Background

Radar with Watches and Warnings

Radar with Watches and Warnings

Current Radar, Watches, Warnings (Plains, West)

Shaded areas underneath any radar returns are watches, and small hollow outlines are warnings. Red shades (outlines) are tornado watches (warnings). Yellow shades (outlines) are severe thunderstorm watches (warnings). Flash flood warnings are shown as green outlines. The links below have radar and watch/warning information for the entire contiguous U.S.

Background

Next 12 Hours

Next 12 Hours

Thunderstorm Forecast: Next 12 Hours

Red shading indicates areas with the best chance of severe thunderstorms; orange shades can expect thunderstorms, but have little or no threat of severe weather. By definition, severe thunderstorms have one of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, or a tornado.
Severe thunderstorms will continue in parts of the Midwest night Tuesday through early Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms that develop in the Plains overnight will head farther east bringing strong to severe thunderstorms into the Great Lakes through the morning hours.
(FORECAST: Sioux Falls | Minneapolis | Chicago | Cleveland)

Background

Wednesday

Wednesday

Thunderstorm Forecast: Wednesday

Red shading indicates areas with the best chance of severe thunderstorms; orange shades can expect thunderstorms, but have little or no threat of severe weather. By definition, severe thunderstorms have one of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, or a tornado.
The Midwest will see the threat of severe thunderstorms once again on WednesdayThunderstorms will develop along a front that will stretch from the Northern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible again farther south into the Central and Southern Plains.
(FORECAST: Sioux Falls | Chicago | Detroit | Philadelphia)

Background

Thursday

Thursday

Thunderstorm Forecast: Thursday

Red shading indicates areas with the best chance of severe thunderstorms; orange shades can expect thunderstorms, but have little or no threat of severe weather. By definition, severe thunderstorms have one of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, or a tornado.
The Midwest and central Plains will see the threat of severe weather yet again on Thursday. In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible again farther south into the Central and Southern Plains, especially through the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.
See Dr. Greg Forbes's TOR:CON tornado forecast for a state-by-state breakdown of areas at risk of tornadoes over the next several days.

Background

48-Hour Rainfall Forecast

48-Hour Rainfall Forecast

Flash Flood Risk

Heavy rainfall this past weekend, in addition to soaking rain earlier this month, has left the ground saturated in parts of southern Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. 
The Rock River at Luverne, Minnesota, crested at an all-time record on Father's Day. Sioux Falls, South Dakota picked up 4.71 inches of rain last weekend, pushing them to an all-time monthly rain record of 9.97 inches, through June 15.
Another heavy thunderstorm Monday brought 0.85 inch of rain to Sioux Falls in 5 minutes. Parts of Interstate 29 south of the city were blocked by floodwaters Monday evening.
Within a 24 hour time span between Monday morning and Tuesday morning, Canton, South Dakota (about 20 miles southeast of Sioux Falls) picked up 8.43 inches of rain!
Any additional heavy rainfall over this region will quickly runoff, leading to additional flash flooding of fields, roads, and rises on area rivers and streams.
Unfortunately, a complex of thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rain to parts of this region each evening through Thursday evening. 
Lightning is of course always dangerous. Keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans in the orange areas on our thunderstorm maps.

website: http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page

How a Storm Gave Birth to Twin Tornadoes in Pilger, Nebraska

The ominous funnels of two huge tornadoes whirled simultaneously toward the Nebraska town of Pilger on Monday night — a convergence of deadly weather that scientists said they see only once every 10 to 20 years.
The twin twisters slammed their way through the small town, splintering trees, flattening houses and ripping their way across farmland. But as amazing and awful as the phenomenon looks, weather experts say it's not unprecedented.
No one can be really sure how often double twisters occur.
"They may actually be more frequent than we think," Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration'sStorm Prediction Center, told NBC News on Tuesday.
In any case, it’s rare to document a twin tornado as strong as the one seen Monday.
"I've been here at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Researchfor 16 years," atmospheric scientist Jeff Weber said. "I've seen all sorts of weather, but I've never seen the data for two tornadoes at the same time like this."

Multiple Funnels Touch Down, Damaging Nebraska Town

NIGHTLY NEWS
         
What causes twin tornadoes?
"No two tornadoes are alike," Carbin said. "There's a spectrum of potential that exists anytime you have a violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground." That means there are many ways to make a double tornado.
One way is through what's known as the occlusion process. A twister starts to dissipate when it gets wrapped with cool, moist air — but in some cases, there's still enough energy in the storm system to spawn another twisting column of air nearby.
Harold Brooks, a senior scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma, favors that scenario. "You can have the tornado that's dying still on the ground at the same time as the new one is formed," he told NBC News. "The overlap between the two was longer than normal, but that cycling process is relatively common."
Another possibility is that this was an extreme case of a multiple-vortex tornado, in which the storm's main vortex spawn other vortices. "Multiple vortices probably exist with every tornado, but they're usually just too small to see," Carbin said. It's far less common to have multiple vortices that are so evenly matched.
The third scenario is that these tornadoes were spawned by two separate supercells. "For that to happen simultaneously for two systems within a mile of each other, the odds are very small," Weber said. "But it can happen. ... I'm in the camp to believe that these were two separately formed tornadoes."
If that's the case, it was a singular stroke of bad luck for the residents of Pilger.
Has this happened before?
Yes, but the phenomenon isn't observed that often. "Every 10 or 20 years," Weber estimated. One famous case occurred during the Palm Sunday outbreak in 1965, when a twin twister killed 14 people in Indiana. An overlapping double-tornado was caught on video during a 1990 storm in Kansas, and another twin tornado was seen in Oklahoma in 1999.
Brooks said the tornado that devastated Moore, Oklahoma, last year "almost cycled" into a twin twister the way this week's storm did.
Are twin tornadoes more destructive than a single big twister?
"That's a great question, and one that we could possibly answer with modeling studies," Carbin said. "The destructive potential of a single tornado a mile wide is bad enough, but if you have another one in close proximity, you're potentially doubling that destructive force."
Brooks pointed out that the destructiveness of a tornado, even a twin tornado, depends on its path. The devastation in Pilger is bad enough, with two deaths and dozens of injuries reported so far, but Brooks said it could have been much worse. "If you move that think 30 miles and it gets into Sioux City, the death toll would probably be a lot higher," he said.
Can twin tornadoes be predicted?
"We're not even close to understanding the mechanisms that are at work here, other than to say we were well aware of the potential for violent storms three days in advance," Carbin said. "The storm scale model guidance that we use has been incredibly valuable in recent years, and seems to be better and better at predicting the areas that are at risk a day or two in advance."
Whether or not a storm spawns multiple vortices, or gives rise to twin twisters, is beyond the capability of current computer modeling. "Sometimes the atmosphere works in mysterious ways," Carbin said.
Will climate change affect the frequency of twin tornadoes?
Anytime an unusual weather phenomenon enters the spotlight, someone usually asks about the climate change connection. But Weber said double-barreled tornadoes are not easily factored into any of the climate models — analyzing climate trends down to the storm-by-storm scale is just too much of a stretch. "This is not a climate signal," he said. "This is a meteorological signal."


website: http://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/how-storm-gave-birth-twin-tornadoes-pilger-nebraska-n133376

87 Million People Face Slight Risk of Severe Weather

As many as 87 million people, from eastern Montana to Manhattan, are under slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday, the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center said.
Damaging wind, hail and few tornadoes are expected on the High Plains, while severe thunderstorms could stretch from Michigan and Indiana to the Northeast.

The forecast comes a day after twin tornadoes devastated Nebraska, killing at least two and critically injuring 16.

Earlier Tuesday, a tornado watch was issued for an area that included Chicago and Milwaukee, The Weather Channel's Justin Abraham reported.

website :http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/87-million-people-face-slight-risk-severe-weather-n132851

Monday, June 16, 2014

San Angelo, Texas, Storms Cause Major Damage; NWS Office Has Communications Problem

Severe weather hammered the San Angelo, Texas, area Wednesday night, spawning at least one tornado, damaging buildings and leaving nearly half the population without power.
A supercell thunderstorm raked through the north and east sides of the city of almost 100,000 Wednesday night, said weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman. Damaging winds from the supercell's rear-flank downdraft, with a measured gust to 73 mph at a Weather Underground station, led to some structural damage and widespread power outages.
As the storm closed in on San Angelo, the city's National Weather Service office began experiencing communications problems. Many meteorologists reported a radar outage in the area, and NWS San Angelo had to turn its duties over. NWS Midland shouldered the responsibility of issuing watches and warnings during the event.

website: http://www.weather.com/safety/thunderstorms/san-angelo-texas-storms-20140612

Tropical Update: Tropics Take A Breather

Quick Summary:

- New low bears watching this week
- Tropics mostly quiet worldwide
EASTERN PACIFIC
The book is finally closed on Cristina. It's been classified a remnant low by the National Hurricane Center, meaning the once tropical cyclone is now just a thunderstorm free swirl of clouds.
A new area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south of the Pacific coast of Mexico. Little development is expected with this system as it moves west-northwestward over the next few days.
ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN, GULF OF MEXICO
It's way too windy across the Gulf and Caribbean right now to get any tropical development. These high altitude winds along with sinking air over the western Atlantic will make for a very quiet week in the tropics.
Our live wall below has the latest updates from our hurricane experts and from coastal National Weather Service offices. No need to refresh, the latest updates will appear at the top of the wall. Time stamps on each post are in Eastern U.S. time.

website: http://www.weather.com/news/tropical-update-atlantic-pacific-hurricane-season-20140513

June Snow: Winter Storm on Tap in Montana As Summer Approaches

Winter just won't quit, even as summer is right around the corner. Cool, huh?
A winter storm is approaching parts of Montana, and heavy snow is expected midweek along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. Winds will gust up to 30 mph and visibility may be less than half a mile at times. 
Background

Winter Alerts

Winter Alerts
This return of winter is due to an upper-level low that will push into the Pacific Northwest bringing colder temperatures and periods of rain and snow. Snow levels will drop to 6,000 feet Tuesday night and Wednesday where winter storm watches have been posted. Closer to pass level, look for a mix of rain and snow, with no accumulation expected. But if you have an early summer vacation planned for Glacier National Park, remember to bring your snow gear as more than a foot of snow is not out of the question.
Plow crews began the process of digging out Logan Pass in Montana last week, and they hope to have the Sun Road open to Logan Pass sometime after June 20. Conditions across the region will improve this weekend. Temperatures will climb into the 70s with mostly sunny skies.  


website: http://www.weather.com/safety/winter/montana-snow-june-20140616

Shirley Fire in Kern County, California, Damages Homes, Burns Thousands of Acres

A wildfire in central California destroyed at least three houses and forced hundreds of people to leave their homes on Monday despite progress in containing the blaze.
The Shirley fire has threatened more than 500 homes, burning 2,600 acres of land, according to an incident report set up to track the fire. By Monday night, the wildfire was 50 percent contained as firefighters raced to get the upper hand before hotter, drier weather approaches later this week.
The blaze is burning in and around the Sequoia National Forest, coming as close as a mile to a community about 30 miles northeast of Bakersfield.
Of the three homes damaged by the fire, at least two of the burned houses appeared to be abandoned, the U.S. Forest Service said in a statement.
On Monday, firefighters succeeded in digging a fire line almost all the way around the blaze and were burning vegetation in the fire's path.
"It's running out of fuel basically, and it is burning downhill, so the fuel load is lighter as it goes downhill to brush and grasses rather than conifers," said fire spokeswoman Cheryl Chipman. She said lighter winds were also expected in coming days.
"We are optimistic and expecting a good report from the crews," Chipman said.
Flames that were being pushed by gusty winds from the west came within a mile of the mountain community of Wofford Heights, and authorities called on residents of about 1,000 threatened homes to evacuate. Dozens of people stayed at a Red Cross shelter overnight, and residents of 500 homes were under mandatory evacuation.
The blaze broke out Friday night in remote area northwest of the lake and exploded late Saturday as dry winds pushed the flames toward homes, prompting Kern County Sheriff's deputies to knock on doors into the night to urge residents to leave.


website: http://www.weather.com/news/fire-kern-county-california-20140615

'Tortured Ice' Is Warping Greenland's Ice Sheet From Below

The flat, glistening, white expanse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, stretching out across hundreds of thousands of square miles, appears placid, unchanging... boring even. But this tranquil surface belies the turmoil taking place below, at the base of the ice sheet.
There, scientists have discovered sections of ice up to a kilometer thick and tens of kilometers long where meltwater has refrozen to the base of the ice sheet, setting off a dynamic process that causes the layers of ice to build up over the eons and contort into sinuous folds.
The refreezing and folding heats the surrounding ice, which impacts how it flows on its journey from the ice sheet’s interior out to the ocean. Several of those regions coincide with the place where one glacier dramatically speeds up.
Understanding what controls the behavior and flow of ice sheets and the glaciers within them is a key part of improving climate models that project what effects global warming might have on the ice and how that might impact sea level rise.
“What this shows is we have to go past just watching the surface,” said Robin Bell, a climate researcher with Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and leader of a new study describing the strange sections of ice in thejournal Nature Geoscience.

Peering Inside an Ice Sheet

Sections of refrozen ice were known to exist at the base of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is much thicker, larger and colder than the Greenland Ice Sheet, itself almost incomprehensibly large. Early radar measurements made by flights over Greenland hinted that something similar could be hiding under the surface there, but the data was too coarse and sparse to tell for sure.
Some thought the radar signatures were the echoes of mountains trapped below the ice. But her experience in Antarctica had Bell “pretty convinced” that they were showing these “basal units” of refrozen meltwater.
She was able to confirm her suspicions when NASA’s Operation IceBridge — a series of scientific flights taken across Earth’s polar region, taking radar scans, measuring gravity and gathering other valuable data — were able to peer beneath the ice surface in greater detail and in side-by-side transects. Bell compared the difference between the early radar and the data from IceBridge to writing with a crayon and then with “a beautiful fine marker.”
The radar data showed that while the surface of the ice sheet may appear “boring” during the hours and hours spent in a research plane, “when you can actually look inside the ice sheet, it’s like, ‘Wow’,” she told Climate Central.
“They did a commendable job of locating these features,” said glaciologist Joe MacGregor, of the University of Texas, who was not involved in the research.

‘Tortured Ice’

The basal units start withmeltwater — a key influence on the flow of glaciers and ice sheets. Meltwater comes from two sources: It forms when the sun’s rays shine on the surface of the ice sheet in the summer, creating pools that can then go cascading down huge conduits in the ice sheet called moulins, eventually winding its way to the ice sheet’s base.
It can also form at the base of the ice sheet as heat generated in Earth’s interior warms the ice or as friction from the movement of the ice against the bedrocks causes it to melt.
Once there, two processes can also cause the meltwater to refreeze to the bottom of the ice sheet: “One is it just kind of cools slowly,” Bell said. As if you took it and “just threw it in the freezer.”
The other is a little more complicated. The movement of the meltwater is under the control of the glacier, which can cause the water to flow upslope on the underlying bedrock. This causes the water to become supercooled and it freezes instantly.
MIKE WOLOVICK
An uplifted and deformed ice sheet in Greenland's fast flowing Petermann Glacier as seen in this radar image.
When the meltwater refreezes, Bell and her colleagues think that something that sounds a bit paradoxical happens: The freezing water gives off heat, which softens the surrounding ice and causes the layers of ice to warp to create what Bell calls “tortured ice.”
The ice sheet is often described as a layer cake, made up of layers of ice that build over the eons as new snow is deposited at the top of the ice sheet, pushing down on older layers sitting underneath. The basal units throw this tidy arrangement into disarray, bending the layers and forcing older layers atop newer ones. These contortions can reach halfway up the thickness of the ice sheet.
“It’s a pretty ugly cake if that’s what it is,” MacGregor said.

website: http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/tortured-ice-warping-greenlands-ice-sheet-below-20140616