Wind Bursts Strongly Affect El Nino Severity

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150415155358.htm

A new study published online April 13, 2015, in the journal Nature Geoscience finds that prolonged wind bursts originating in the western Pacific can have a strong effect on whether an El Niño event will occur and how severe it is likely to be. In addition, the paper identifies three distinct varieties or "flavors" of El Niño, and explains how these westerly wind bursts (WWBs) can determine which of these flavors will take shape. The findings should help refine future predictions of these global-scale climate events.

"These westerly wind bursts are intraseasonal--they're not weather, they're not climate, but somewhere in between," said Raghu Murtugudde, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic science at the University of Maryland who is a coauthor on the study. "Our study shows that the wind bursts are definitely having an effect. We better learn to predict them if we are going to have skillful El Niño predictions."

The researchers analyzed 50 years of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and westerly wind burst data. They found differences, especially when comparing the data from this year's weak El Niño event with the record-breaking event of 1997/98.

"The most notable difference was the existence of strong westerly winds extending from the western to central equatorial Pacific in May 1997, which were not seen in 2014," said Murtugudde, who also has an appointment in the university's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC). "The development of strong westerly winds in the central equatorial Pacific in association with the warming to its east appears to be an essential element of large El Niño events."

Extending Climate Predictability Beyond El Nino

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150421084810.htm

At present computer simulations can predict the occurrence of an El Niño event at best three seasons in advance. Climate modeling centers worldwide generate and disseminate these forecasts on an operational basis. Scientists have assumed that the skill and reliability of such tropical climate forecasts drop rapidly for lead times longer than one year.

The new findings of predictable climate variations up to three years in advance are based on a series of hindcast computer modeling experiments, which included observed ocean temperature and salinity data. The results are presented in the April 21, 2015, online issue ofNature Communications.

"We found that, even three to four years after starting the prediction, the model was still tracking the observations well," says Yoshimitsu Chikamoto at the University of Hawaii at Manoa International Pacific Research Center and lead author of the study. "This implies that central Pacific climate conditions can be predicted over several years ahead."

"The mechanism is simple," states co-author Shang-Ping Xie from the University of California San Diego. "Warmer water in the Atlantic heats up the atmosphere. Rising air and increased precipitation drive a large atmospheric circulation cell, which then sinks over the Central Pacific. The relatively dry air feeds surface winds back into the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. These winds cool the Central Pacific leading to conditions, which are similar to a La Niña Modoki event. The central Pacific cooling then strengthens the global atmospheric circulation anomalies."

"Our results present a paradigm shift," explains co-author Axel Timmermann, climate scientist and professor at the University of Hawaii. "Whereas the Pacific was previously considered the main driver of tropical climate variability and the Atlantic and Indian Ocean its slaves, our results document a much more active role for the Atlantic Ocean in determining conditions in the other two ocean basins. The coupling between the oceans is established by a massive reorganization of the atmospheric circulation."

The impacts of the findings are wide-ranging. "Central Pacific temperature changes have a remote effect on rainfall in California and Australia. Seeing the Atlantic as an important contributor to these rainfall shifts, which happen as far away as Australia, came to us as a great surprise. It highlights the fact that on multi-year timescales we have to view climate variability in a global perspective, rather than through a basin-wide lens," says Jing-Jia Luo, co-author of the study and climate scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia.

Exploding Stars Help Us Understand Thunderclouds on Earth

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150422084218.htm

'We used to throw away LOFAR measurements taken during thunderstorms. They were too messy.' says astronomer Pim Schellart. 'Well, we didn't actually throw them away of course, we just didn't analyze them.' Schellart, who completed his PhD in March this year at Radboud University in Nijmegen and is supervised by Prof. Heino Falcke, is interested in cosmic rays. These high-energy particles, originating from exploding stars and other astrophysical sources, continuously bombard Earth from space.

High in the atmosphere these particles strike atmospheric molecules and create 'showers' of elementary particles. These showers can also be measured from the radio emission that is generated when their constituent particles are deflected by the magnetic field of Earth. The radio emission also gives information about the original particles. These measurements are routinely conducted with LOFAR at ASTRON in Dwingeloo, but not during thunderstorms.

High Mountains Warming Faster Than Expected

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150423085456.htm

"Elevation-dependent warming is a poorly observed phenomenon that requires urgent attention to ensure that potentially important changes in high mountain environments are adequately monitored by the global observational network," say members of the Mountain Research Initiative Working Group in the current issue of Nature Climate Change.

High mountains are the major water source for large numbers of people living at lower elevations, so the social and economic consequences of enhanced warming in mountain regions could be large, the researchers add. "This alone requires that close attention be paid to the issue. In addition, mountains provide habitat for many of the world's rare and endangered species, and the presence of many different ecosystems in close proximity enhances the ecological sensitivity of mountains to environmental change."

Lead author Nick Pepin of the University of Portsmouth, U.K., says, "There is growing evidence that high mountain regions are warming faster than lower elevations and such warming can accelerate many other environmental changes such as glacial melt and vegetation change, but scientists urgently need more and better data to confirm this. If we are right and mountains are warming more rapidly than other environments, the social and economic consequences could be serious, and we could see more dramatic changes much sooner than previously thought."

UMass Amherst's Bradley adds that without substantially better information, there is a risk of underestimating the severity of a number of problems, including water shortages and the possible extinction of some alpine flora and fauna.

He says, "We are calling for special efforts to be made to extend scientific observations upwards to the highest summits to capture what is happening across the world's mountains. We also need a strong effort to find, collate and evaluate observational data that already exists wherever it is in the world. This requires international collaboration."

Ensenada, Chile, "Ghost Town"

http://www.wunderground.com/news/chile-calbuco-volcano-eruption-evacuations-alerts

Two eruptions blasted forth from Chile's Calbuco volcano for the first time in more than 42 years on Wednesday, creating a remarkable scene of smoke plumes and ash shooting more than 6 miles into the sky. Calbuco had another spectacular outburst early Thursday with lightning crackling through a dark sky turned reddish orange by the explosion.

Ensenada, in the foothills of the volcano, looked like a ghost town Thursday, but for an occasional horse or dog roaming its only street. Most of the 1,500 residents had evacuated after the initial eruption Wednesday, with only about 30 people refusing to leave out of worry for their homes and animals, The Associated Press reported.

The height of the volcanic ash emitted triggered concerns that the dust could contaminate water, trigger respiratory illnesses and halt more flights. No injuries have been reported.

The first blast surprised Chilean emergency officials, who were left with only minutes to issue an alert. 

"People went into a state of panic," said Miguel Silva Diaz, an engineer who lives in Puerto Montt, a city about 14 miles from the volcano. "Then, at around 1 a.m., I heard a loud noise, as if somebody had detonated an atomic bomb."

Why April is Dangerous Month for Tornadoes

http://www.wunderground.com/news/april-tornadoes-history-explained

While tornadoes can be spawned any time of year the volatile mix of climatological ingredients exist, April is a particularly dangerous month for tornadoes in parts of the U.S.

Over the past 10 years, April comes in only behind May for average U.S. tornado counts. That average is admittedly skewed by April 2011, in which 758 U.S. tornadoes set a record for any month.

Typical April tornado risk areas. Areas typically with the highest risk of tornadoes in April are contoured white.

Tornadoes by month in theBirmingham, Ala. metro from 1950-2013. (Source: Dr. Greg Forbes)

Tornadoes by month in the Dallasmetro area from 1950-2013. (Source: Dr. Greg Forbes)

A swath from the central and southern Plains east into the Tennessee Valley is most susceptible to swarms of tornadoes in the first full month of spring. However, the tornado threat also rises markedly in April much farther north into the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. 

Massive Tornadic Storm Misses Dallas

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2967

Near-record atmospheric moisture for late April teamed up with an extremely strong jet stream to produce a fearsome night of severe weather over north Texas, mainly south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The most intense storms of the day developed by early afternoon southeast of Abilene, with one large supercell emerging at the south end of the complex. After producing several brief tornadoes and hail as large as softballs from a giant stacked-plate circulation, the storm grew even larger and more threatening after dark as it moved just south of the DFW area. Slowing and reoganizing, it dumped more than 5” of rain on some areas, according to Doppler radar estimates. At one point, there were three potentially tornadic circulations evident on Doppler radar along the storm’s south edge, a pattern eerily reminiscent of the deadly storm on May 30, 2013, that killed several storm chasers near El Reno, Oklahoma. Soon after midnight, the circulations congealed into a powerful comma-shaped bow echo that swept across the prairie with high winds (see Figure 1). Nineteen preliminary tornado reports were logged by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Texas on Sunday.

Nepal Earthquake Triggers Avalanche

http://www.wunderground.com/news/nepal-earthquake-mount-everest-avalanche

An avalanche triggered by a 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Nepal plowed through Mount Everest's base camp Saturday killing at least 18 people and injuring dozens more.

The base camp's nylon tents stood little chance against the torrent of snow and debris that rushed down the mountainside, smothering everything in its path. The avalanche — or perhaps a series of avalanches hidden in a massive white cloud — plowed into a part of base camp, a sprawling seasonal village of climbers, guides and porters, flattening at least 30 tents, Tshering said. All of the dead and injured were at base camp.

The worst injured were ferried out in helicopters, while those remaining at base camp endured a series of powerful aftershocks, some of which caused smaller but still terrifying avalanches in the surrounding mountains.

But as the first stunned survivors of the avalanche reached Kathmandu, Nepal's capital, they said that dozens of people may still be missing and were almost certainly dead.

Will Government Ban Super Pollutant?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/24/will-governments-ban-a-super-pollutant-thats-making-earth-warmer/

In air conditioners, industrial chemicals known as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are powerful refrigerants that help keep humans cool. In the atmosphere, however, they have the opposite effect, trapping the sun’s heat more efficiently than almost any other greenhouse gas.

Now, after years of wrangling, the world’s nations may finally be moving toward setting global limits on the chemicals because of their potential role as a cause of global warming. A round of technical discussions in Bangkok ended Friday with the approval of a work plan that could lead to a global agreement on HFCs, currently among the most commonly used chemical coolants used in air conditioners and refrigerators, before the year’s end.

Diplomats signaled progress toward an international accord after India — long an opponent to a ban on HFCs — reversed course late last week and offered a plan to gradually phase out global production of the chemicals. That step led in turn to an agreement to move forward to formal negotiations in July, with the intention of drafting a final agreement in November, according to officials present at the talks.

Thermal Camera Sees Hidden Pollution

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/22/thermal-camera-sees-hidden-pollution-nets-73-million-settlement-with-energy-firm/

The surprise finding in early 2012 led environmental officials to document a major, yet hidden, source of air pollution in the Denver area, one that contributed to the region’s high levels of smog. The investigation culminated with an announcement Wednesday of what Cruden described as a “first-of-its-kind” legal settlement: an estimated $73.4 million agreement aimed at stopping the leaks and improving air quality in Colorado and perhaps far beyond.

The settlement, announced jointly by U.S. and Colorado officials, includes what Justice Department officials estimate to be about $60 million for equipment upgrades at thousands of storage tanks to prevent leaks. Noble Energy, the Texas-based energy company, also consented to a nearly $5 million civil penalty and agreed to contribute $8.5 million to environmental remediation projects.

Justice Department officials said Noble was unaware of the problem, and when shown the evidence, agreed to a costly retrofitting that will reduce future emissions from its operations in oil and gas fields in central Colorado. “We’re hoping this sets a good example for other companies,” Cruden said.

The settlement was one of two announced by Justice officials timed with Wednesday’s Earth Day observance. The second involved a $5 million agreement by ExxonMobil’s pipeline subsidiary resulting from a crude oil spill near Mayflower, Ark.

The Noble settlement stems from a long-running effort by the Environmental Protection Agency and Colorado’s state environmental regulator to find the sources of air pollutants known as volatile organic compounds, or VOCs. The Denver area has long been in violation of federal standards for VOCs, which are major contributors to smog. VOCs are byproducts of numerous man-made chemical processes, include fossil-fuel combustion.

Pacific Ocean May Have Entered New Warm Phase

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/10/the-pacific-ocean-may-have-entered-a-new-warm-phase-and-the-consequences-could-be-dramatic/

Two new studies have just hit about the “warm blob” in the northeast Pacific ocean — a 2 degree C or more temperature anomaly that began in the winter of 2013-2014 in the Gulf of Alaska and later expanded. Scientists have been astonished at the extent and especially the long-lasting nature of the warmth, with one NOAA researcher saying, “when you see something like this that’s totally new you have opportunities to learn things you were never expecting.”

The Post’s Sarah Kaplan has covered some of the most immediate consequences of the “blob,” such as weird appearances of strange marine species more typical of warm water, like ocean sunfish, off the Alaskan coast. She also notes that the blob may be linked to the California drought and other odd weather phenomena.

Global Warming has Upped Odds of Extreme Heat Events

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/27/study-global-warming-has-already-dramatically-upped-the-odds-of-extreme-heat-events/

It used to be the big debate in climate change circles. Whenever an extreme event occurred — like, say, Hurricane Katrina, or the deadly 2003 European heat wave — the question would immediately arise as to whether it was legitimate to in any way “link” it to climate change. Usually, some errant activist would draw the connection, and climate skeptics would pounce, denouncing the leap and questioning any causal attribution.

Over time, though, scientists have clarified matters. They’ve explained that while global warming doesn’t “cause” any single event, it can make them more likely to occur, not unlike (in the helpful analogy) the loading of dice. Indeed, published papers have shown that a warming climate had indeed increased the odds of a number of individual extreme events, including the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Russian heat wave and the 2013 Australian summer heat.

As we move further and further into a jarred climate, meanwhile, the research on attributing extreme events has also advanced. Thus, in a new study in Nature Climate Change, Erich Fischer and Reto Knutti, of the science-focused Swiss university ETH Zurich, perform an analysis not for any individual event but rather for all daily heat and precipitation extremes of a “moderate” magnitude occurring over land in our current climate. And they find, strikingly, that 18 percent of today’s moderate precipitation extremes, and 75 percent of moderate heat extremes, were made more likely to occur by global warming.

Changin Climate and Mummies

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/09/why-a-changing-climate-could-destroy-some-of-the-worlds-oldest-mummies/

Arica is often referred to as the driest place on Earth — but locals say that’s changing. According to Sepulveda, the city has seen increases in precipitation and humidity of late. “Everybody say[s] that here,” she averred. Indeed, weather historian Christopher Burt wrote about Arica in 2013, noting that despite its famous reputation for dryness, weather records from 1971 to 2000 suggest it has been somewhat wetter than usual of late.

This may not be a change that can be definitively pinned on global climate change caused by humans, cautioned Ralph Mitchell, a Harvard microbiologist who teamed up with the Chilean researchers to figure out what was ailing the mummies. But it’s a change nonetheless. “Our colleagues in northern Chile say it’s terribly obvious that the place is foggy a lot more than it ever was,” Mitchell said.

Arctic Sea Ice Hits New Record

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/19/scientists-say-arctic-sea-ice-just-hit-a-disturbing-new-winter-record/

And now, the Boulder-based National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which tracks sea ice, has indeedannounced that the peak winter Arctic sea ice extent “likely” occurred Feb. 25, and that this maximum “not only occurred early; it is also the lowest in the satellite record.” However, the agency does include several caveats. That includes not only the word “likely,” but also the observation that “a late season surge in ice growth is still possible.”

The loss of sea ice around the Arctic has a vast number of consequences. They range from climatic — exposing more dark ocean water, which absorbs more solar radiation than ice does, leading to further warming — to social and cultural: Undermining the subsistence hunting techniques that Alaskan native villages have pursued atop the ice for generations.

Global Warming and Ocean Circulation

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/23/global-warming-is-now-slowing-down-the-circulation-of-the-oceans-with-potentially-dire-consequences/

And now this week brings news of another potential mega-scale perturbation. According to a new study just out in Nature Climate Change by Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a group of co-authors, we’re now seeing a slowdown of the great ocean circulation that, among other planetary roles, helps to partly drive the Gulf Stream off the U.S. east coast. The consequences could be dire – including significant extra sea level rise for coastal cities like New York and Boston.

A vast, powerful, and warm current, the Gulf Stream transports more water than “all the world’s rivers combined,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But it’s just one part of a larger regional ocean conveyor system – scientists technically call it the “Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” — which, in turn, is just one part of the larger global “thermohaline” circulation (“thermohaline” conjoins terms meaning “temperature” and “salty”).

The Melting of Anartctica

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/16/the-melting-of-antarctica-was-already-really-bad-it-just-got-worse/

A hundred years from now, humans may remember 2014 as the year that we first learned that we may have irreversibly destabilized the great ice sheet of West Antarctica, and thus set in motion more than 10 feet of sea level rise.

Meanwhile, 2015 could be the year of the double whammy — when we learned the same about one gigantic glacier of East Antarctica, which could set in motion roughly the same amount all over again. Northern Hemisphere residents and Americans in particular should take note — when the bottom of the world loses vast amounts of ice, those of us living closer to its top get more sea level rise than the rest of the planet, thanks to the law of gravity.

The findings about East Antarctica emerge from a new paperjust out in Nature Geoscience by an international team of scientists representing the United States, Britain, France and Australia. They flew a number of research flights over the Totten Glacier of East Antarctica — the fastest-thinning sector of the world’s largest ice sheet — and took a variety of measurements to try to figure out the reasons behind its retreat. And the news wasn’t good: It appears that Totten, too, is losing ice because warm ocean water is getting underneath it.

World thunderstorm 'map' key to assessing climate change

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150209113251.htm

"New research by Prof. Colin Price of Tel Aviv University's Department of Geosciences and published in Environmental Research Letters will likely be crucial to measuring the impact of climate change on thunderstorms -- one of the weather occurrences most problematic for human life on the planet. The varying frequency and intensity of thunderstorms have direct repercussions for the public, agriculture, and industry.

"To date, satellites have only provided snapshots of thunderstorm incidence," said Prof. Price, whose new map of thunderstorms around the world is the first of its kind. "We want to use our algorithm to determine how climate change will affect the frequency and intensity of thunderstorms. According to climate change predictions, every one percent rise in global temperature will lead to a 10 percent increase in thunderstorm activity. This means that we could see 25 percent more lightning by the end of the century."

Global rainfall satellites require massive overhaul

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150212183515.htm

"A new Cornell University study warns that the existing system of space-based rainfall observation satellites requires a serious overhaul. Particularly in many developing countries, satellite-based flood prediction has weak spots, which could lead to major flooding that catches people by surprise. What's more, four of the 10 dedicated rainfall satellites are past their warranty, further increasing risk of disaster.

The study, published online Feb. 11 in Environmental Research Letters, is led by Patrick Reed, professor of civil and environmental engineering, in collaboration with researchers at Princeton University and the Aerospace Corporation."

Extreme Cold Keeps Severe Weather Protocol in Effect

http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/Extreme-Cold-Keeps-Severe-Weather-Protocol-in-Effect-292037801.html

<script type="text/javascript" charset="UTF-8" src="http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/portableplayer/?cmsID=292038341&videoID=pY7RfHlBio9J&origin=nbcconnecticut.com&sec=news&subsec=local&width=600&height=360"></script>

"Hartford Hospital says it’s already seen the impact of this wintry weather.

As of Friday night, at least four people were rushed there with hypothermia and at least another dozen people fell on the ice.

The hospital reports lots of broken bones including hips and wrists.

The extreme weather had some people looking for better protection from it, including new gloves.

“The gloves I use to go to work I can not use it in this cold weather,” says Solomon Addy, Manchester.

People made sure trips outside were quick. They were ready to head back inside their warm homes, even if it’s costing them more money to heat recently.

“Right now it’s coming up to $30 or 40 a month when I used to spend $25, 30. It’s going up,” says Migdalia Rosado, East Hartford. “I have four children at home too who I got to keep very warm.”

The governor is reminding people the Severe Cold Weather Protocol is in place until Monday the 23rd.

That makes sure that no one has to be outside during these dangerously cold temperatures and they can head to shelters and warming centers."
 

Severe weather causes sudden turbulence, Sends United Airlines passangers to Honolulu hospital

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/28113271/severe-weather-causes-sudden-turbulence-and-sends-united-airlines-passengers-to-honolulu-hospital

"The stormy weather didn't cause major problems just on the ground but in the air as well.

Hawaii Department of Transportation says says sudden turbulence jolted United Airlines Flight 15 bound from Newark to Honolulu. The turbulence injured seven people; five needed to go Queens Medical Center. Four of them were crew members, while the fifth was a teenage girl with a head injury and nausea. Two of the other flight crew members declined transport to the hospital. The plane landed around 4:00 p.m.

About two hours into United Airlines Flight 1716, which left Honolulu heading to Los Angeles around noon, the DOT says the crew smelled fumes in the cockpit. The plane was sent back to land on Maui. But because of the bad weather there, it returned to Honolulu.

In addition, the DOT claims six other flights heading to Maui all needed to be diverted to Honolulu because of the weather."