Climate Change Will Stir ‘Unimaginable’ Refugee Crisis

Climate change is set to cause a refugee crisis of “unimaginable scale,” according to senior military figures, who warn that global warming is the greatest security threat of the 21st century and that mass migration will become the “new normal”.

The generals said the impacts of climate change were already factors in the conflicts driving a current crisis of migration into Europe, having been linked to the Arab Spring, the war in Syria and the Boko Haram terrorist insurgency.

Military leaders have long warned that global warming could multiply and accelerate security threats around the world by provoking conflicts and migration. They are now warning that immediate action is required.

“Climate change is the greatest security threat of the 21st century,” said Maj Gen Munir Muniruzzaman, chairman of the Global Military Advisory Council on climate change and a former military adviser to the president of Bangladesh. He said one metre of sea level rise will flood 20 percent of his nation. “We’re going to see refugee problems on an unimaginable scale, potentially above 30 million people.”

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-unimaginable-refugee-crisis-20931

An ‘Unprecedented’ 102 Million Trees Have Died In California’s Drought-Stricken Forests

In California’s drought-stricken forests, trees are dying at an “unprecedented” rate, according to officials. The U.S. Forest Service said last month that 102 million trees have died across the state since 2010, including 62 million dead trees in 2016 alone.

And the die-off is showing no signs of slowing.

“Millions of additional trees are weakened and expected to die in the coming months and years,” said the Forest Service.

Five consecutive years of severe drought have been pinpointed as a primary cause of the tree deaths. The unusually hot and dry weather has put California’s trees under enormous strain, making them more vulnerable to injury, disease and organisms like the bark beetle ― an insect that attacks and kills trees. 

But experts say the drought is not the only culprit. 

Other human activities, including fire suppression policies and land development, have also fueled the problem.

“When you’re talking about tree mortality, it’s a whole bunch of things linked together,” David Rizzo, chair of the plant pathology department at the University of California Davis, told Vox. “The drought is important, but you also have to look at land-use and management decisions that go back a long time.” 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/million-tree-deaths-california-drought_us_58412918e4b0c68e0480331d

Can we blame climate change for thunderstorm asthma?

Australians have been left unsettled by the recent thunderstorm asthma event that claimed eight lives in Melbourne. As with previous extreme weather events, we are left to wonder whether it was climate change at work, if it will happen again and if it will be worse next time.

We can’t say for sure if the thunderstorm asthma event was caused directly by climate change. But modeling each extreme event is neither feasible nor necessary. All weather events should now be considered in the context of climate change and general climate projections are sufficiently alarming to justify the need for governments to prepare for, and adapt to, new risks these pose to our health.

Climate change poses a threat to health directly through extreme weather events, warmer average temperatures and sea level rise. Indirectly it can destabilise the systems that keep our air clean, produce our food, provide us with fresh drinking water and enable economies to thrive. These shifts pose a threat to livelihoods, food and water security, and social and political stability.

Heatwaves and reduced rainfall pose the greatest threat to Australians’ health and livelihoods. Indirectly, these changes will increase the severity of bushfires and droughts. These and other extreme events are a significant risk to physical and mental health.

http://theconversation.com/can-we-blame-climate-change-for-thunderstorm-asthma-69564

The size of extreme cluster tornadoes hitting the US has doubled in 50 years – and no one knows why

The average number of tornadoes in the largest cluster outbreaks is now almost double what it was in the 1960s, a new study finds. The researchers say that current climate change models can't account for the trend, but don't rule it out as a cause.

The total number of tornadoes hitting the US has not increased overall in the past 50 years, but the tornadoes are occurring in more concentrated outbreaks, according to a paper published in the journal Science. The effect seems to be confined to the largest clusters, with no noticeable trend in the smaller outbreaks of tornadoes.

The authors of the study found that wind shear was the main factor in increasing the number of tornadoes in large cluster outbreaks.

"We're not saying it isn't climate change, it's just not what we expect from our current understanding," study author Michael Tippet of Colombia University told IBTimes UK.

"That leaves two possibilities: there's a lot we don't understand about climate change and this is part of it, or this variability is not driven by climate change."

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/size-extreme-cluster-tornadoes-hitting-us-has-doubled-50-years-no-one-knows-why-1594448

12 weather records broken in 2016 for Hong Kong

Hong Kong has broken a dozen weather records this year, ranging from the highest consecutive number of hot days to the most rainfall recorded in autumn.

The Observatory is expecting 2016 to go down in the books as the warmest year to date, smashing last year’s record, not just for Hong Kong, but also globally, as a result of climate change and one of the longest ever El Nino effects.

The number of “very hot” days – when maximum temperatures surpass 33 degrees – hit 38 this year, compared to last year’s 28. Four days in a row of scorching weather in late June also set a rare record in 2016 for most consecutive days of temperatures above 35 degrees.

September to November also saw 1,078.8mm of rain, breaking the record for the highest amount of rainfall recorded in autumn.

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/2050484/hong-kong-sees-12-weather-records-broken-2016

Nottingham-made app tells you when extreme weather is on the way

Climate Smart-Crop is an application that aims to transform the way the agricultural industry grows crops, in a bid to help tackle a future global food shortage.

Developer Dr Christopher Nankervis uses an innovative algorithm to predict changes in weather conditions on seasonal timetables and provides efficient forecasts that are accurate to within a few kilometres.

It could help the public, businesses and farmers prepare for food and fuel shortages resulting from significant changes in weather.

http://www.nottinghampost.com/nottingham-made-app-tells-you-when-extreme-weather-is-on-the-way/story-29950416-detail/story.html

Actuaries Climate Index Launched Today Measures Changes in Extreme Weather Events and Sea Level

Today, organizations representing the actuarial profession in the United States and Canada launched the Actuaries Climate Index™ (ACI), which provides a quarterly measure of changes in extreme weather events and sea levels, available online at www.ActuariesClimateIndex.org. This index is based on analysis of quarterly seasonal data for six different index components collected from 1961 to winter 2016, compared to the thirty-year reference period of 1961 to 1990. The Actuaries Climate Index™ is an educational tool designed to help inform actuaries, public policymakers, and the general public about climate trends and their potential impact. 

The Actuaries Climate Index™ looks at the continental United States and Canada, placed into 12 regions. Higher index values indicate an increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events. The latest Actuaries Climate Index™ values show an increase in the impact of extreme weather events, such as high temperature, heavy precipitation and drought.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/actuaries-climate-index-launched-today-measures-changes-in-extreme-weather-events-and-sea-level-300370075.html

How to build skyscrapers that can withstand earthquakes

Mexico City's new tallest building, the Torre Reforma, posed a tricky design challenge for London engineering firm Arup, thanks to the city's predisposition to earthquakes.

The 246-metre-tall skyscraper's triangular structure has a tendency to twist when hit with seismic activity and wind. So Arupdevised a new model for constructing concrete structures in risky locations.

"The core provides resistance to earthquakes using reinforced concrete sheer walls, connected by smaller elements known as coupling beams which dissipate energy during a large earthquake," explains Tom Wilcock, an associate principal engineer at Arup's Advanced Technology and Research practice in New York.

Using historical earthquake data and information from statistical and physical earthquake models, Arup's structural engineers simulated representative earthquakes and their effects on the building's structure during the design process. Now, Wilcox says, the Torre Reforma can withstand the full range of earthquake activity predicted in the area for the next 2,500 years. Fingers crossed.

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/mexico-skyscrapers-resist-earthquake