Sky Over Antarctica Glowing Electric Blue from Ice Clouds

Something weird happened recently in the skies over Antarctica: sparkling blue flashes pulsing around the dark South Pole like an electrified iris around a pupil.
The source of the strange flashes, noctilucent ice clouds, occur under strict atmospheric conditions, and only during a handful of weeks in the year. Seeded by fine debris from disintegrating meteors, noctilucent clouds glow a bright, shocking blue when they reflect sunlight.
And this year, they’ve come early.
NASA’s Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere, or AIM, spacecraft first recorded the sparkling lights on Nov. 17, tying with the earliest start yet in the AIM record of the Southern Hemisphere, the agency said.
(MORE: Former American Astronaut Buzz Aldrin Evacuated from South Pole

Data from NASA’s Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere, or AIM, spacecraft shows the sky over Antarctica is glowing electric blue due to the start of noctilucent, or night-shining, cloud season in the Southern Hemisphere.
(NASA)

“This season … is tied with 2013 for the earliest Southern Hemisphere season in the CIPS data record,” Cora Randall, a member of the AIM science team at the University of Colorado, told EarthSky. “This was not at all a surprise: The Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric winds switched to their summer-like state quite early this year.”
Noctilucent clouds form in the mesosphere, nearly 50 miles above the Earth's surface, where so few air molecules exist that it becomes extremely difficult to produce ice crystals. But when conditions are just right - namely, a temperature below minus-207 degrees Fahrenheit - tiny cubic ice crystals can form at latitudes greater than 40 degrees.
Since its 2007 launch, AIM data has shown that changes in one region of the atmosphere can impact responses in another distinct, and sometimes distant, region, NASA said. It's a phenomenon scientists call atmospheric teleconnection.
In addition to appearing earlier in the year, noctilucent clouds have spread to regions beyond the poles, NASA said in 2013 press release.
"When noctilucent clouds first appeared in the 19th century, you had to travel to polar regions to see them," the release states. "Since the turn of the century, however, they have been sighted as close to the equator as Colorado and Utah."
James Russell, a principal investigator of AIM, told Tech Times that growing methane content in the atmosphere could be responsible for the early onset as it allows more water vapor to be loaded into ice crystals leading to these clouds.

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5 Things to Know About Arctic Cold Fronts and the Plummeting Temperatures They Produce

Arctic cold fronts are the king of the meteorological world when it comes to the plunging temperatures in the wake of their passage. Every year they sweep through parts of the Lower 48 states, often ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season.

December is ushering in the first blast of arctic air this winter season across the United States. With that in mind, here are five things to know about arctic cold fronts.

1.) Incredible 24-Hour Temperature Drops

24-hour temperature map on the afternoon of Nov. 30, 2014. Some locations in Nebraska and Kansas were 50-60 degrees colder than the exact same time the day before on Nov. 29, 2015.

One of the favorite maps among meteorologists when an arctic cold front is sweeping through the country is the 24-hour temperature change. Frequently you'll see locations 40 or more degrees colder than the exact same time the day before.
The image above shows the 24-hour temperature changes that occurred in the central Plains behind an arctic cold front Nov. 29-30, 2014 at 2:30 p.m, local time. Some areas in Kansas and Nebraska saw the mercury plunge 50-60 degrees during that 24-hour period.
As an example, O'Neill, Nebraska, was 76 degrees at 2:55 p.m. CST Nov. 29. The next day at 2:55 p.m. it was just 15 degrees with a wind chill of 2 below zero -- a 61-degree drop in the actual temperature and a 78-degree drop in the feels-like temperature.

2.) Major Temperature Plunges Can Occur in Minutes

In extreme situations, the temperature drops that follow arctic cold fronts can happen in just minutes.
For this next example we turn back the clock to Dec. 12, 1919 in Amarillo, Texas. An arctic cold front, locally known as a Blue Norther in that part of the country, swept into the Texas panhandle town.
A noon it was 67 degrees, pleasant for an early December day at lunchtime. Cold northerly winds then rushed in behind the Blue Norther, dropping the temperature to 23 degrees by 1 p.m. An incredible plunge of 44 degrees in one hour.
It got even worse through the afternoon and early evening. In fact, by the time people were cleaning up from dinner around 7 p.m., it was only 1 degree above zero.

3.) A Few Miles Makes a Big Temperature Difference

Another aspect of arctic cold fronts that frequently draws the attention of meteorologists is the difference in temperature over short distances.
The map above shows a 44-degree temperature difference observed on the afternoon of March 4, 2015, across a span of about 120 miles between the Mississippi towns of Aberdeen (81 degrees) and Tunica (37 degrees).

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Drought Relief Arriving in the Northeast This Week Thanks to Two Rounds of Soaking Rain

Portions of the Northeast have been suffering from drought conditions since the summer, but welcome rain has arrived and will continue through early Thursday, putting a dent in some of the rainfall deficits across the region.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
The first round of rain has arrived and will continue through Tuesday, which could be heavy at times. That umbrella and raincoat may be buried in your closet, collecting dust, but should both be put to good use Tuesday.
After a break Tuesday night, the second batch of rain arrives Wednesday, continuing into Thursday morning in parts of New England. The rain could again be heavy at times, certainly beneficial in southern New England where they remain in extreme drought conditions, the second worst category of drought.
(FORECAST: Boston | New York City | Philadelphia | Washington D.C.)

Areas in red indicate extreme drought, the second worst category of drought. Lighter colors represent less severe categories of drought.
(National Drought Mitigation Center)

Most areas in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic should receive at least an inch of rain between the two systems, with some places picking up closer to two inches. As with any soaking-rain event, there is the potential for some flooding in a few spots, but this rain will be more beneficial than anything else.
Some thunderstorms are possible within these swaths of rain, mainly across the mid-Atlantic states. This is because southerly winds will increase temperatures and dew points, adding more instability to the atmosphere.

Rainfall Outlook

Many areas of the Northeast swamped with heavy snow from Winter Storm Argos a week ago will likely see only rain this week.
Incredibly, all the snow cover from Argos will likely be gone in both Binghamton, New York (where Argos was a record all-time snowstorm), and Syracuse, New York. A whopping 22 inches of snow was reported on the ground in Syracuse on Nov. 21, while 15 inches of snow was on the ground in Binghamton on Nov. 22.

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Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge Fires Continue to Burn; at Least 400 Structures Damaged or Destroyed

The Tennessee resort towns of Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge were reeling Tuesday morning after several wildfires in the Great Smoky Mountains quickly advanced on the area, prompting mass evacuations and burning dozens of homes and businesses.
According to officials during a press conference Tuesday, more than 400 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed in Sevier County and at least 14,000 were evacuated from Gatlinburg alone overnight.
Gatlinburg Fire Chief Craig Miller, who noted that "the worst is over," said more than 200 firefighters are "still actively fighting fire" and noted that it had been a "difficult 24 hours." An additional 212 firefighters have been requested to help with the effort Tuesday, he added.
"This is a fire for the history books," said Miller. "It's like nothing many of us have ever seen."
(MORE: Winter Storm Blanche updates)
No fatalities have been reported, but 12 people are being treated for injuries, Miller said.
Gatlinburg mayor Mike Werner, who said he likely lost his own home in the fire, offered encouragement to the community, saying Gatlinburg was "strong and very resilient."
"We will rebuild," said Werner. "It's going to be okay."
As of 11 a.m., fires have claimed more than 150 structures in the unincorporated part of the county and more than 200 in the cities, according to WBIR. At least 70 homes have been destroyed.
Pigeon Forge Mayor David Wear said in a weather.com Facebook live interview that nine structures were destroyed in the town.
"We have been blessed to not have had more," said Wear.
"Fire officials report that fallen trees have sparked multiple fires from fallen power lines," Cindy Ogle, Gatlinburg city manager, told WATE. "Fire agencies from multiple agencies are responding to the area fires and I can’t express enough the city’s gratitude for the assistant with the National Park."
Gatlinburg was placed under a Level 3 state of emergency and residents were asked to stay off their cell phones unless it was for an emergency in order to keep the lines clear, according to an announcement from TEMA.
"If you're a person of prayer, we could use your prayers," Gatlinburg Fire Chief Greg Miller said during a Monday morning press briefing, as reported by CNN.com.

Downtown Gatlinburg is seen under a heavy blanket of smoke on Monday, Nov. 28, 2016.
(KarleeRecreated/Twitter)

Guests at the Dollywood theme park in Pigeon Forge were evacuated from nearby cabins as the fire advanced towards Parton's property, WATE said in a separate report, and crews were working to protect the park from the flames. As of late Monday night, no structures at Dollywood had been destroyed, according to a statement from the park.
The 500-acre fire quickly grew Monday fueled by 30 to 40 mph winds and is affecting the Chimney Tops and Bullhead Ridge area. Authorities say the wind has caused the fire to jump to different locations along the ridges.
The Gatlinburg Fire Department reported a wind gust to 63 mph early Monday evening, according to weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman.
It remains unclear how much impact the rain had on the wildfires, but weather.com meteorologist Kait Parker notes that rain does not necessarily put out a wildfire.
"It has slowed it due to the wetting of the top layer and higher relative humidity but the roots and underbrush will still be burning," said Parker.
Rainfall data from Weather Underground personal weather stations indicate most areas around Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge picked up 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain Monday night into early Tuesday, Erdman noted.

Park officials told the Daily Times that the fire, which began Nov. 23, is likely man-made.
No deaths have been reported in the inferno. Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, both popular vacation destinations, are home to a combined 10,000 permanent resident.


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5 Fascinating Seasonal Migrations

The turning of the year offers people and creatures alike the chance to experience more enjoyable weather. Summer’s hot, dry heat becomes winter’s freezing chill, and while some of us are lucky enough to vacation away from our weather woes, creatures in the animal kingdom have fewer options. They often can’t hit the slopes in the summertime or go on island getaway cruises in the winter. However, several species do travel great lengths for the perfect climate.

Mexican Free-Tailed Bats

Free-tails spend the warmer months in widespread habitat that encompasses most of the southern half of the U.S. As northern cold fronts drive temperatures down, they migrate together in massive groups - seriously massive groups!  These bats can roost in colonies of several million individuals, so when they take wing together, they darken the skies with their sheer numbers, their wings creating a sound like the rushing thunder of whitewater as they fly for friendlier skies. The density of these colonies have also been known to show up on Doppler radar as an incoming storm system, so meteorologists have learned to see the difference. The longest recorded migrations for Mexican free-tailed bats have seen them overwintering more than one thousand miles south of their summer caves.

Monarch Butterflies

The striking black-and-orange coloration of the monarch butterfly makes it a favorite of collectors, but its beauty is temperamental. Monarchs aren’t built to survive the harsh, colder winters of their favored summer quarters in the Northern Hemisphere. Those living east of the Rockies will begin a southern migration of up to 3,000 miles toward overwintering sites in Mexican pine-oak forests starting in August, while their western cousins will seek out the coastal microclimate of Southern California’s stands of eucalyptus and Torrey pines.

Humpback Whales

Their enormous size daunts us. Their mysterious, haunting songs captivate us. Turns out, though, humpback whales are very much like us in at least one respect: they seek out heat after a long, cold season. These gargantuan creatures like a spot of tropical warmth after a chilly summer in polar waters and they’re willing to go to great lengths to get it. Some pods have it easier than others, journeying a cool 6,000 miles round-trip between Alaskan coastal waters and Hawaiian ones, but others travel as many as 5,200 miles in a single leg from their summer feeding grounds in Antarctica to their winter nurseries near Costa Rica. The record? A whopping 11,706 miles between the Antarctic Peninsula and American Samoa.

Arctic Terns

Imagine being so enamored of the days of longest light that you were willing to travel from one pole to the other, constantly in pursuit of that unbeatable summer sun. Is a journey with a minimum distance of 12,000 miles one way worth getting two summers every year and more daylight than any other living creature? If you said yes, you might be an arctic tern, an unassuming bird of grey and white plumage that stands about a foot tall and has a wingspan of less than three feet. These birds have what’s called a continuous circumpolar migration pattern: they spend their lives travelling between Earth’s northern and southern poles, racking up some 44,000 frequent flyer miles every year.

More than a million wildebeest and zebra cross annually the border between the Tanzanian Serengeti Plains and the Kenyan Masai Mara National Reserve in search of fresh grass and water in what is called 'The Great Migration.'
(PEDRO UGARTE/AFP/Getty Images)

The Great Migration

Every year, upward of two million animals migrate in a loose clockwise pattern between the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania and the Maasai Mara National Reserve in Kenya, with wildebeest at the helm and herds of zebra, gazelle, eland and impala in close proximity — and of course, big predators like lions not far behind. The wildebeest follow the rain responsible for their food and water, so no two migrations have the exact same timing, and as the herds are continually in motion it’s tough to pinpoint a beginning or an end to the migration. Still, most say the migration begins with the calving of hundreds of thousands of wildebeest in the Serengeti. The herds travel west and north as their plains begin to dry out, crossing lakes and two major rivers en route to the Maasai Mara reserve; they then travel east and south again as the rains begin to fall again on the short-grass plains from which they began their journey. The whole trip is around a thousand miles, but with so much of the circle of life on display, it’s no wonder this event is called The World Cup of Wildlife.    

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Dozens of Southeast Wildfires Continue to Grow, Prompting Air Quality Alerts; Thousands Evacuated in North Carolina

Dozens of wildfires continue to burn in the Southeast, prompting evacuations and air quality alerts in several states from smoke that blankets the region
Fueled by prolonged drought conditions across the region, the fires have burned more than 80,000 acres in five states and have prompted officials to declare states of emergency in Tennessee, North Carolina and Kentucky, reports CNN.

"All of the Southeast is very dry ... fire doesn't know any boundaries," Brian Haines, spokesman for the North Carolina Forest Service, told CNN. "Drought conditions are contributing to drier and larger forest fuels being available. These range from the undergrowth to sticks, leaves and logs. Even the smallest of sparks can ignite these very dry fuels."

According to WNCN, more than a thousand North Carolina residents were evacuated from Lake Lure, Chimney Rock, Bat Cave and Rumbling Bald Resort in Rutherford County after a fire dubbed the Party Rock fire continued to advance near Chimney Rock State Park. The fire has consumed more than 3,700 acres and was 15 percent contained by Tuesday morning, according to InciWeb.
"We're hoping for the best and preparing for the worst," North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory said at a news conference Monday.

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Things To Know About This Week's Weather

Quiet and mild weather conditions have dominated the weather for much of the U.S. so far in November, but there are some changes ahead. Much of the country can expect dry conditions to persist in the week ahead, but rain is expected in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The trend of above-average temperatures will also continue, but it will not be quite as warm as this past week.
Below we take a closer look at the four things you need to know about the weather as we move toward mid-November.

1. Wet Weather in Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley

Rain is expected for early week in the southern Plains due to an upper-level area of low pressure. Surface high pressure centered over the East will allow a southerly flow to develop over the southern Plains, bringing moisture into the region.

Locally heavy rain is a possibility, especially Sunday and Monday in central and eastern Texas, as well as into Oklahoma and far-western Louisiana. Thunderstorms are also likely, but widespread severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.
Drought conditions have been spreading across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma since the end of September, so this rainfall will likely be beneficial for those areas.

There is some uncertainty as the week progresses as to the timing and how far east the chances of rain will reach.

2. Not Much Drought Relief in Southeast, Northeast

Unfortunately, there does not seem to be much rain in the East over the coming week as high pressure will continue to influence conditions across the region.

A couple of upper-level disturbances may move through the Northeast mid-to-late week, bringing a few light rain and snow showers. However, widespread precipitation appears unlikely, which is not good news for the drought in the region.

The Southeast will also see mostly dry conditions, at least through early week. Some showers could approach southern Mississippi and southern Alabama as early as Tuesday morning. Mid-to-late week, the chance of rain increases slightly as the system that will bring rain to the southern Plains may push eastward enough to bring a few showers to portions of the Southeast.
However, given differences in the forecast models and the fact that it is several days away there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding how much, if any, rainfall makes it into the region. The drought in the region continues to worsen so any change in the dry pattern will be very welcome. Make sure to check back with weather.com for forecast updates.

3. The Warmer Than Average Trend Continues

Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average next week from the northern Plains and intermountain West into the Midwest and Southeast. The Northeast, southern Plains and the West Coast will experience temperatures near to slightly above average. However, there are some indications that by next weekend temperatures may begin to trend cooler in portions of the East.

These above-average temperatures are due to an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. There may be a few daily record highs through the week but we are not expecting widespread records like this past week, as it will not be as warm.

Highs will climb into the 60s for much of the Plains and Midwest, with 70s toward the Ohio Valley and 50s in the Upper Midwest. Farther east, the mid-Atlantic will enjoy highs in the 60s with 70s in the South.
Low temperatures will also be warmer than typically expected heading into mid-November, especially in parts of the Rockies, northern Plains and Midwest. Temperatures will only drop into the 40s for much of the Midwest and into the mid-Atlantic and portions of the Southeast. If you are looking for lows below the freezing mark you will need to go toward northern New England and the higher elevations of the inter-mountain West.

4. Unsettled in Pacific Northwest

A moist southwesterly flow will be in place across the Pacific Northwest this week. This will allow wet conditions to impact the region at times during the week.

Precipitation is expected to be generally light across most of the region and will mainly be confined to the west coast of Washington and northwestern Oregon. The best chance for moderate to heavy rainfall will be on the Olympic Peninsula and in far northern Washington. However, there is a chance that some of the rain and showers may push farther east midweek. Another system may bring a more widespread chance of rain late in the week.

Records Are In Jeopardy For Latest First Freeze in the Midwest

Another side effect of the record warmth that has dominated much of the U.S. since October is the lacking of freezing temperatures. Most cities in the Midwest have yet to see the thermometer drop to the 32-degree mark and now records are in jeopardy.

A persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure has brought warmer than average temperatures to the Plains, Midwest, South, and at times the Northeast. There does not appear to be a pattern change until mid-November at the earliest. Numerous daily record highs were set at the end of October and beginning of November and a few monthly record highs were even broken for November. More record highs have been set this weekend, including in Minneapolis which hit 73 degrees Saturday. This trend now has its sights set on breaking records for latest first freeze.

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Seymour to Become a Major Hurricane in the Pacific

Seymour continues to strengthen well off the coast of Mexico and is now a Category 2 hurricane. The system remains no threat to land as it moves west-northwest in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

• Hurricane Seymour was located over 500 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California, as of Monday afternoon.
• Seymour is forecast to strengthen and become a major Category 3 hurricane Monday night or Tuesday before weakening later this week.
• This system is moving away from Mexico and is no direct threat to land at this time.
• Seymour is the 13th hurricane of the 2016 northeast Pacific Ocean hurricane season.

Three Weeks Later, Haiti in Ruins from Hurricane Matthew's Effects

When Hurricane Matthew hammered Haiti as a Category 4 storm in the early-morning hours of Oct. 4, meteorologists and humanitarian groups assumed the worst. Three weeks later, a full-blown calamity continues to unfold in western Haiti. Aid groups are still surveying the damage, but it has been an extremely slow and painful three-week period for the country. The storm brought deadly wind and rain, but it also yielded concerns of disease in the disaster's aftermath – fears that have proven legitimate.
"We can tell you that when our teams arrived, they compared the area to that of a bomb blast," Dr. Joanna Cherry, chief medical officer of Hospital Bernard Mevs' Project Medishare in Port-au-Prince, told NPR. "There's no leaves left on any trees. There's very little foliage still standing. There's no shade in any areas. Multiple houses had their roofs taken off during the storm."

A man named Mason, with cholera symptoms, receives medical attention at Saint Antoine Hospital of Jeremie, southwestern Haiti, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2016.

 

 

 

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Winter Storm Names For 2016-2017 Revealed

The Weather Channel and weather.com on Tuesday released its winter storm names for the 2016-2017 season, marking the fifth season of naming winter storms. The names will be used in alphabetical order to identify winter storms that meet naming criteria. The 2012-2013 list for winter storms was the first of its kind to be developed by The Weather Channel.
 "It's simply easier to communicate about a complex storm if it has a name, which our naming program has demonstrated," said Bryan Norcross, senior hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel and compiler of the list. "Good communications benefits everyone."

(AMS BLOG: It's Time For Weather Community Cooperation on Naming Winter Storms)
According to winter weather expert Tom Niziol of The Weather Channel, there were 22 named winter storms in the 2015-2016 season, matching the total from the 2014-2015 season, but less than the 26 named storms in 2013-2014 and 27 storms in 2012-2013.

(RECAPS: Winter 2015-2016 Warmest on Record in Lower 48 States)
The Bozeman, Montana, High School Latin class, which has contributed to the winter storm name list since 2013-2014, once again contributed to the 2016-2017 list.

The roster of winter storm names for the 2016-2017 season, compiled by Bryan Norcross of The Weather Channel in collaboration with the Bozeman High School Latin class.

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Sarika Weakens to a Tropical Storm, Poses Flood Threat to China and Vietnam

Tropical Storm Sarika continues to weaken between China's Hainan Island, where it made landfall as a typhoon on Tuesday, and the northern Vietnamese coast, where it is expected to make landfall in on Wednesday, local time. Over the weekend, Sarika pounded the northern Philippines where it made landfall early Sunday morning as a Category 4.

Sarika is forecast to make its final landfall near the border between Vietnam and southern China as a tropical storm on Wednesday, local time.

Although the winds in Sarika have weakened, it still poses a major threat of flooding as it moves inland. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches (locally higher) are possible through Thursday near and either side of the border between China and Vietnam.

More than 10 inches of rain fell in the Hainan Island city of Qionghai in the 24 hours ending early Tuesday afternoon, local time.

Philippines: Category 4 Landfall

Sarika — given the name "Karen" by the Phillipine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) — moved ashore about 85 miles northeast of Manila near the town of Baler as the equivalent of a Category 4 storm with 130 mph maximum winds on Sunday.
(NEWS: Sarika/Karen Turns Deadly in the Philippines)
The town of Virac, capital of the Philippine province of Catanduanes, picked up almost 22 inches of rain Friday through Saturday. Nearby, the town of Daet also picked up just over 21 inches of total rain over that same time period.
Interestingly, prior to Sarika/Karen, the typically typhoon-hit northern Philippines had seen only one typhoon so far in 2016, Typhoon Nida.

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Here's What’s Coming Next After Hurricane Matthew

Parts of the Eastern United States will be spending the next few days cleaning up the mess Hurricane Matthew left behind, especially the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic.
Residents that evacuated will be returning home, and many may be wondering what the week ahead has in store while cleanup efforts are taking place.

Areas Hit Hard By Matthew: No Stormy Weather For Cleanup

While residents of the Southeast return home to Matthew's devastation, one piece of good news is that high pressure will dominate the region right through the week, meaning dry weather and no conditions that would inhibit cleanup efforts.

Series of Storms Headed For the West

As an upper-level ridge of high pressure (bulge in the jet stream) departs to the east, a cold front will move into the West by Wednesday night.
Therefore, after several days of dry weather, a stretch of wet and windy weather will impact the region late week into the weekend as a series of strong disturbances pushes through.
(MAPS: 7-Day Forecast Highs and Weather)

Rainfall Forecast

Several inches of rain are possible across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, northern California and northern Nevada. Some wet snow could also fall over the highest elevations of the Cascades and the northern Sierra Nevada.
Some of this rainfall has the potential to lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban and poor-drainage areas. The heaviest rain is expected to set up close to the coast, where over 5 inches of rain could fall by late Sunday.
Gusty winds will accompany the rain and mountain snow, especially along the coast and in the higher terrain.

Full Article Here

Flooding From Matthew Kills 15 in North Carolina; 'Too Many People Have Died'

Flooding from Hurricane Matthew continued to wreak havoc on North Carolina on Tuesday, leaving 15 dead and several counties under mandatory evacuation orders, including an entire town of 2,000.
President Barack Obama declared a federal emergency for 31 counties on Monday as floodwaters continued to rise.
North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory said in a Tuesday morning press conference that there have been 14 people killed in the state and urged residents to heed warnings and evacuation orders. The Associated Press announced another death later in the morning, bringing the total to 15.
Emergency Management Director Stephanie Chavis told AP a man's body was found late Monday afternoon in Robeson County after an extensive search. His vehicle was reportedly washed away by floodwaters.
"Too many people have died," McCrory said during his press conference. "Be careful — do not put other people's lives in danger."

15 Deaths Reported

Fifteen people have been killed in the state, most of them occurring when motorists were swept away on flooded roads, McCrory said during a Tuesday morning press conference.
One person was killed in Johnson County when their car was washed away, McCrory said Monday.
McCrory said during a press conference Saturday that one person died in Sampson County after their vehicle hydroplaned in heavy rain. Two others were killed in Bladen County when their vehicle became submerged.
A fourth victim drowned in Harnett County after the victim drove past a barricade and was swept away into a creek, the county sheriff told FOX8.


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Hurricane Matthew Could Be a Joaquin Déjà Vu in The Bahamas

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the center of Matthew moving through the Bahamas this week. In the Bahamas, 8 to 12 inches, locally up to 15 inches, of rain is expected. Surge could reach 10 to 15 feet.

It now appears likely it will take several days for Matthew to finally clear the islands.
(FORECAST: Nassau | Freeport)
This scenario brings to mind Hurricane Joaquin's prolonged pounding one year ago.

Joaquin's Devastation

First developing about halfway between Bermuda and the Bahamas, Joaquin narrowly missed Category 5 status as it lashed the central Bahamas for several days before finally pulling away.

Hurricane Matthew's Catastrophic Haiti Strike Imminent; Hurricane Warnings in Cuba and Bahamas; Southeast U.S. Impacts Possible

Hurricane Matthew's potentially catastrophic strike on Haiti is imminent, and it will also impact parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Late this week and into the weekend, portions of the coastal southeastern U.S. states could see impacts from Matthew. Interests from Florida to the coastal Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew very closely. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its 5 p.m. advisory Monday, "While there remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has increased."

U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, it remains uncertain how close Matthew's eyewall will pass near the northwest Bahamas later Thursday into Friday, and it is still too soon to determine how big the danger will be in parts of the U.S. late this week and next weekend. (MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted) For now, ensemble forecast guidance suggests we can't rule out at least tropical storm-force winds along the eastern Florida coast in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.

Typhoon Megi Closing in on Taiwan; Typhoon Warnings Issued

Typhoon Megi, a Category 2 equivalent typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean, is closing in on Taiwan, the fourth typhoon to landfall or brush Taiwan this season. Megi is currently located just over 300 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Megi rapidly intensified with wind speeds increasing from a 50 mph tropical storm to a 105 mph typhoon in just 24 hours this weekend. Monday, it appeared Megi was replacing its eyewall, something common in stronger tropical cyclones.

Current Storm Status
Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued typhoon warnings and a number of "extremely heavy rain advisories" ahead of Megi. Radar from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB) shows Megi's broad shield of rain pushing toward Taiwan now.
Megi will make landfall in Taiwan Tuesday afternoon, local time. Taiwan is 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern daylight time.
There is still some chance Megi gains some intensity coming off the eyewall replacement cycle, but it is running out of time before landfall.
Full Article Here

 

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Expected to Become Seymour in the Eastern Pacific

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E became the latest tropical cyclone of a busy 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season Monday morning. This system was located over 1,100 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, as of Monday afternoon. Strengthening is expected, and this system will likely become Tropical Storm Seymour soon. However, the "future Seymour's" lifespan will be short. Strong wind shear will eventually rip apart this system by late in the week well east of the Big Island of Hawaii.Thus, it is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

 

Current Storm Information, Infrared Satellite Image
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Tornado Watch Issued as Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Threaten Midwest

Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will threaten the Midwest through the first half of this week.
The first round of severe weather will fire up Monday along a cold front. Additional strong to severe storms will then be possible Tuesday into Wednesday as the tail end of that front stalls and a new low-pressure system develops.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued the following watch area:

• A severe t-storm watch is in effect until 8 p.m. CDT for parts of southern Wisconsin and far northeast Iowa. This watch area includes Milwaukee and Madison.
• A tornado watch is in effect until 10 p.m. CDT for parts of east-central and southeast Iowa and extreme northwest Illinois. This watch area includes Davenport, Iowa, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Full Article Here

 

Tropical Storm Karl, Threat for Bermuda

Tropical Storm Karl is still battling wind shear and dry air, but is expected to find a more favorable environment to intensify into a hurricane later this week. As of Monday evening, Karl was centered over 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Karl is expected to become a hurricane somewhere south of Bermuda by Friday. For this reason, residents and visitors of Bermuda should monitor the progress of Karl closely, as it could pass near Bermuda as a hurricane sometime this weekend. Given this, it appears very unlikely Karl will pose a threat to the U.S., other than the eventual generation of large swells reaching the East Coast.

 

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