15 Feet of Snow Could Fall Near Mount Rainier's Peak Early This Week

If you were on the highest mountain peaks of the Pacific Northwest this week you would need a yardstick to measure snowfall totals.

Mount Rainier in Washington state. (National Park Service)

A powerful northern Pacific jet stream continues to propel numerous storm systems into the region, making for a wet, windy, and in some cases, snowy weather pattern. Although the elevation at which snow versus rain will fall is varying with each weather system, the summits of some of the highest peaks in the region such as Mount Rainier, Mount Hood and Mount Baker will see nothing but snow, piling up foot-by-foot.

The Sunday night National Weather Service (NWS) forecast near the summit of Mount Rainier predicted that up to 190 inches (15.8 feet) of snow would fall at an elevation of 12,762 feet from Sunday night through Wednesday night. The low end of the forecast range from the NWS was still an impressive 152 inches (12.6 feet). For reference, Mount Rainier's peak elevation rises to 14,410 feet.

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/mount-rainier-feet-of-snow-nws-forecast

Winter Storm Delphi Winding Down Across Northern Plains, Upper Midwest

Winter Storm Delphi will wind down through Wednesday morning across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest after dumping up to a foot of snow in parts of northern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa have seen top snowfall totals of 9 inches.

Here is the general outlook of additional snowfall expected through Wednesday morning:

• Locally up to 3 inches of snow possible: Northeast Minnesota, as a band of light to moderate snow lingers through early morning. Later in the morning, a band of snow may impact portions of northern Illinois with a couple of inches of snow, although downtown Chicago can expect rain or a wet snow that struggles to accumulate.
• Scattered flurries and snow showers: A broad area from Minnesota and Iowa, eastward to Lake Michigan can expect a few periods of light snow through the overnight. By the predawn hours, any lingering snow activity should be confined to southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/winter-storm-delphi-midwest-plains-corn-belt-november-december-2015

Record December Deluge Triggers Major Flooding In Chennai, India, For Second Time in Two Weeks

Torrential rain has triggered massive flooding for the second time in about two weeks in the southern India state of Tamil Nadu.

The Associated Press reports that thousands have been forced to leave their homes, schools and offices due to the floodwaters. In addition, a regional airport in the area was closed for a second day Thursday and the main train station was also shut down because of heavy flooding.

At least 269 people had been killed in the state since heavy rains started in the beginning of November, said India's Home Minister Rajnath Singh, although no deaths have been reported in the latest deluge.

An aerial view of Chennai showed low-lying neighborhoods as well the city's airport almost completely submerged. The Airport Authority of India said that the airport was likely to be closed until Sunday.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/chennai-india-floods-december-2015

El Niño Zone Breaks Monthly Water Temperature Record in November

The current El Niño set a monthly record in November, and may eventually become the strongest El Niño on record this winter, according to data just released from NOAA.

Water temperatures near the ocean surface reached their highest positive anomalies on record in the zone of the equatorial Pacific Ocean defining either El Niño or its opposite, La Niña, in November. This means the sea-surface water temperature was farther above average for the time of year than any previous month in reliable records dating to 1950.

Specifically, the water temperature in this region was about 2.35 degrees Celsius above average in November 2015, topping the previous record monthly anomaly from November 1997 by 0.02 degrees Celsius, in reliable records dating to 1950.

El Niño is an anomalous, yet periodic, warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. For reasons still not well understood, every two to seven years, this patch of ocean warms for six to 18 months, then cools.

This warming of equatorial Pacific water influences the atmospheric pattern from the western Pacific Ocean, including Australia and Indonesia, to North and South America, the Atlantic Ocean, even parts of Europe and Africa.

Pacing this record monthly anomaly was a first-on-record monthly sea-surface temperature of 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) in the equatorial central Pacific well south and southwest of Hawaii, according to Colorado State University tropical meteorologist, Dr. Phil Klotzbach.

Record Strongest El Niño?

The seemingly straight-forward question of whether this El Niño is the strongest on record is, well, complicated.

"It depends on the measure," said The Weather Channel's senior director of weather communications, Stu Ostro. "There's ERSST.v4 versus OISST.v2 (two different sea-surface temperature datasets), and weekly, monthly and three-month sea-surface temperature data."

For historical purposes, the most accepted method of categorizing the intensity of El Niños and their opposite La Niñas utilize the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's three-month running mean SST anomaly, known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), instead of looking at one week or even one month's worth of data.

Based on the latest three-month (September-November) ONI available at the time of this column, the 2015 El Niño is pacing ahead of the 1982-1983 event, but still behind the pace of the strongest El Niño of record in 1997-1998.

Year	Sep-Nov ONI (degrees C)
1) 1997	+2.18
2) 2015	+2.04
3) 1982	+1.86

El Niños typically peak in the winter months, so it is still possible the current El Niño may continue to strengthen a bit over the next month or so. When comparing the current ONI value with the peak values reached in the two strongest El Niños, 2015 (soon 2016) still ranks third. 

Year	Peak ONI (degrees C)
1) 1997-1998	+2.26 (Oct-Dec)
2) 1982-1983	+2.12 (Nov-Jan)
3) 2015-2016	+2.04 (Sep-Nov)

Another variable used to examine not just the sea-surface temperature anomalies, but also the atmosphere's response, known at the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) also places 2015 behind 1997 and 1982 in October and November data, according to Klotzbach.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/strong-el-nino-december-2015

Heavy Rain Causes Flooding in South Florida

Although the threat of widespread flooding has diminished, locally heavy showers will remain possible in South Florida into Sunday night. This could result in some additional street flooding along the immediate coast.

Through Saturday, Miami International Airport has already reported its third wettest December on record with 8.48 inches of rain since Dec. 1. This also ranks as the wettest December since 1929 for the area. West Kendall-Tamiami Airport reported 8.82 inches of rain for the day on Saturday, bringing the December total there up to 13.27 inches.

This recent rain is occurring during what is typically the dry season in southern Florida. Miami averages 5.90 inches of rain during the three months spanning December-February.

Sunday Night: Locally Heavy Rain in Florida, Pacific Northwest Storms

• Occasional showers remain possible in South Florida. Some localized street flooding cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast.
• Wet conditions will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest as a series of storm systems roll into the region in the days ahead. The greatest threat for heavy rain, which may cause localized flooding, will be from the northern coast of California to the coasts of Oregon and western Washington.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/severe-weather-forecast-november-30-december-6-2015

Heavy Rain, Flash Flood and Severe Threats May Ramp Up This Week (FORECAST)

No severe thunderstorms are forecast through much of the upcoming week as most of the country will remain under the influence of a relatively stable environment. Thunderstorms may become more numerous by Friday night into next weekend as a potent storm system is forecast to develop over the nation's heartland.

Aside from the thunderstorm threat, heavy rain from a series of storm systems may cause isolated flooding across portions of the Northwest.

Friday Night - Sunday, Dec. 13

• Thunderstorms may develop ahead of a robust storm system from portions of Texas and Oklahoma late Friday to parts of the Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast over the weekend.
• Details are unclear at this point, but some severe risk may accompany the aforementioned storm system.
• Periods of heavy rain with localized flash flooding may continue to impact parts of the Northwest into the weekend.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Storm Desmond Lashes U.K., Ireland With Flooding, Winds Over 100 MPH; Taps Caribbean Moisture

A fierce, wet Atlantic storm soaked parts of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland with flooding rain, storm surge flooding and winds locally over 100 mph during the weekend.

Flooded roads in the centre of Appleby, north west England, as Storm Desmond hits the United Kingdom, Saturday Dec. 5, 2015. Roads have been closed throughout the North and Scotland as Storm Desmond caused road chaos, landslides and flooding. (Owen Humphreys/PA via AP)

Storm Desmond, the fourth named storm of the season, arrived Friday and continued into Saturday, prompting the issuance of the first red "take action" warning from the U.K. Met Office since Feb. 12, 2014 for parts of the north of England and the south of Scotland.

(MORE: U.K., Ireland Names Storms)

Shap, located just outside of Lake District National Park in the north of England picked up a whopping 10.34 inches (262.6 mm) of rain from Storm Desmond early Friday into early Sunday, according to the U.K. Met Office. Nearby Keswick measured 7.02 inches (178.4 mm) in that same 48-hour period. The heavy rain caused rivers to flood homes and forced evacuations in Cumbria and Northumberland,the U.K. Met Office reported. 

Met Éireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, also issued red warnings for rainfall for Connacht, Donegal, Clare and Kerry. Up to 3 inches (75 mm) of rain had already soaked parts of Ireland as of Saturday afternoon.  

Red alerts for heavy rain or flooding were also hoisted in far southern Norway and southwest Sweden. Eik Hove, Norway, had picked up 7.91 inches (201 mm) of rain over the past 48 hours through Saturday evening. 

Storm Desmond tapped an atmospheric river, a long, narrow plume of deep moisture from the tropics into the mid-latitudes, keeping it parked over parts of Ireland, the U.K. and southern Scandinavia, a prime recipe for excessive precipitation.

In this case, the atmospheric river was over 5,300 miles (8,500 kilometers) long from the western Caribbean Sea to southern Sweden.

http://www.weather.com/news/news/storm-desmond-uk-ireland-scotland-december-2015

Warm Weather to Dominate U.S. This Week

It has not felt much like December so far across parts of the United States, but by later this week practically nobody will feel like December in the Lower 48 states as above-average temperatures take over virtually the entire country.

In some parts of the country, temperatures will soar up to 30 degrees above early-December averages at times this week. Below are the forecast details.

Cold Air Stays Bottled Up North

As we start meteorological winter, which runs from Dec. 1 through Feb. 29, true arctic air remains locked up in extreme northern Canada, well to the north of the U.S. border and even well north of all the major Canadian cities.

Friday, at least 16 Canadian cities set daily record highs, particularly in Manitoba, where the city of Morden, southwest of Winnipeg, soared to 14.2 degrees Celsius (about 57.6 degrees Fahrenheit). An additional fourteen daily record highs were set in Manitoba Saturday-Sunday, including Emerson (7.1 degrees Celcius/44.8 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday) where records date back to 1877.

Highs reached the freezing mark as far north as Thompson, Manitoba on Friday (roughly 55 degrees north latitude, about 470 miles north of Winnipeg). The average high on December 4, there, is -13.8C (7.1 degrees F). Just a bit farther northeast of there on Saturday, Gillam, Manitoba, reached the freezing mark which also was a new daily record (0.3 degrees Celcius / 32.5 degrees Fahrenheit).

In the U.S., both Marquette, Michigan (50 degrees at the NWS office in nearby Negaunee Township), and International Falls, Minnesota (45 degrees), tied their daily record highs Friday.

On Saturday, International Falls tied its record warmest low temperature for the month of December, only dipping to 36 degrees just before midnight. Then on Sunday a daily record high of 45 degrees was set. So much for the "Nation's Icebox," at least for awhile.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/warm-united-states-december-2015

When Is the Coldest Time of the Year?

Now that the calendar says December, we've entered a stretch of months that typically bring the coldest temperatures of the year for many locations across the United States. That said, with a strong El Nino in play this winter, the severity of the cold that we see during winter 2015-16 could be tempered a bit for some areas in the northern states.

But historically speaking, perhaps you are curious about when the coldest time of year is where you live? These maps from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) provide the answer, showing the time frame for when the coldest day of the year, on average, occurs across the U.S.

Days of the Lower 48's coldest low temperatures during an average year, using 1981-2010 averages. (NOAA/NCEI) 

Residents in pockets of the Pacific Northwest, southern California and southwestern Arizona get their coldest day of the year in mid-December.

The eastern half of the country, as well as the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains, typically see the coldest day in mid-to-late January.

NOAA says the reason for this temporal discrepancy is due to the increased snow cover in the East as well as the Rockies. Increased snow cover reflects sunlight, which keeps ground temperatures colder.

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/coldest-day-year-average-map-noaa-20141112

Pacific Storm Parade to Lash Northwest With Heavy Rain, Mountain Snow For Days

A parade of Pacific storms that began last week will continue to impact the Northwest into the coming weekend

The combined effect of heavy rain and saturated ground may trigger localized flooding in parts of western Washington and western Oregon, and feet of snow will pile up in the Cascades, and other mountain chains from this Pacific onslaught.

The latest round of rain, wind, and mountain snow will continue to impact Washington, Oregon, far Northern California, Idaho and western Montana into late Monday.

NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) has issued high wind warnings that are in effect into Monday for parts of the southwest Washington and Oregon coasts. High wind warnings are also in effect for the eastern slopes of the Oregon Cascades. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph are possible at times in the above mentioned areas.

Wind advisories are in place from the Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington, areas southward into the Willamette Valley for gusts up to 45 mph on Monday.

Snow levels in the Washington Cascades will rise to 5,500-6,500 feet during the day on Monday.

(FORECAST: Seattle | Portland | San Francisco)

As of late Monday morning, some roads had been closed due to urban flooding in Tillamook County, Oregon, according to local emergency management. In addition, a few landslides were also reported.

Tuesday-Wednesday Storm

Precipitation may not completely end in some areas between Monday's storm and this next one. This storm will be very wet with high snow levels initially rising to 7,000-8,000 feet on Tuesday.

As colder air filters in, snow levels will fall to 3,500-4,500 feet on Wednesday.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/ice-wind-snow-rain-northwest-dec-2015

Another Winter Storm Brewing?

Yet another winter storm is targeting parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest with potentially heavy snow early this week. This system could become our next named winter storm "Delphi" if it meets the winter storm warning population and/or area coverage requirments needed for naming.

Enlarge

Forecast location of the upper-level low pressure system on Tuesday in the Great Lakes. This system stalled in the Great Basin over much of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. 

Low pressure in the upper atmosphere has been stuck swirling over the Great Basin during the Thanksgiving holiday, trapped to the south of a corresponding area of high pressure aloft in an atmospheric logjam known to meteorologists as a "Rex block". 

As a result, the weather had been rather stagnant and unchangeable, with periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow persisting in the Plains, and locally heavy rain soaking the warm side of Winter Storm Cara.

Now, that blocked-up jet stream pattern is finally giving way.

The upper-level low mentioned above will finally pivot east into the Midwest early in the week ahead. As it does so, moisture in the atmosphere will be lifted, and cold air in place will yield a swath of snow from late Sunday into Tuesday night from the High Plains to the Corn Belt, Upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Lakes.

Winter storm watches have already been posted for portions of eastern Nebraska, southeast/south-central South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, meaning the possibility exists for snowfall amounts greater than 6 inches within the next 48 hours. Those watches include the Minneapolis/St. Paul, Sioux City, Iowa, and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, metro areas. Winter weather advisories are in effect farther south, across southern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, where somewhat lower snowfall totals are anticipated.

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-midwest-plains-corn-belt-november-december-2015

Snowstorm Hits China

A fall snowstorm hit China this week, disrupting travel but giving skiers an early-season excuse to hit the slopes.

The snow caused about 300 flight cancelations at Beijing Capital International Airport, according to CCTV. Airplanes weren't the only form of travel affected by the snowstorm; 9News.com in Australia reported hundreds of passengers ditched buses that got stranded in the wintry precipitation.

This led to human gridlock from the masses of people struggling to walk on icy, slushy roadways, a scene that was captured by drones flying overhead.

Schools in some parts of Beijing canceled classes earlier in the week, CCTV also said.

The snow event has been beneficial to skiers, who have hit the slopes for some early-season action. Several towns around Beijing have opened new ski areas that will be used to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, and Xinhua reported that as many as 17,000 people participated in winter sports in the first few snowy weekends on the peaks.

"The snowfalls have satisfied a craving for winter sports fans," Shi Lei, who works at Beijing's Bird's Nest stadium, told Xinhua.

With many nearby provinces experiencing a winter activities boom in the wake of the Winter Olympics announcement, many have welcomed the snowfall.

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/china-snow-beijing

5 Dead as Heavy Rain and Flooding Hits Texas and Oklahoma

Fast-moving floodwaters have contributed to the deaths of at least three people in Texas as the state and other parts of the South and Midwest continue to be deluged with heavy rainfall.

A motorist and sheriff's deputy were swept away during a high water rescue early Friday as flash flooding begins to soak parts of Texas. Multiple water rescues have already been reported in Fort Worth, and two vehicles became stuck in streams in the Joshua area Thursday.

Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will increase over the next few days on the warm side of Winter Storm Cara in parts of the South.

Three people in separate accidents have died after being swept away in rapid floodwaters and one remains missing, reports AP. 

In Garland, a suburb in Dallas, firefighters located the body of 29-year-old Benjamin Floyd inside a Hyundai Elantra that was swept from a bridge and submerged in water, according to CBS DFW. Floyd was able to reach 911 around 6:20 Friday morning, but his vehicle was found underwater by the time authorities arrived on the scene.

A 33-year-old woman's body was found downstream from her vehicle west of Fort Worth after it was washed off the road in high waters flowing 10 to 12 feet above Rock Creek's banks, according to Johnson County Sheriff's Office spokesman Tim Jones.

Sheriff's deputy Krystal Salazar was swept away during a water rescue in Tarrant County, reports NBC. Salazar stopped to assist a 70-year-old woman stranded in her car in high water on the 11600 block of Oak Grove Road around 2 a.m. While wading through the approximately five feet deep water, the officer was overtaken and swept away. 

A police helicopter and dive teams were dispatched to search for Salazar and the motorist. Salazar was found hanging onto a tree around 3 a.m. As of Saturday night, the woman had not been rescued from the vehicle, which was submerged in water. The victim has yet to be found, and weather conditions have halted the search. Salazar was transported to John Peter Smith Hospital. Tarrant County sheriff’s office spokesman Terry Grishman told The Star-Telegram that Salazar was "bruised and battered, but she’s OK."

http://www.weather.com/news/news/flash-flooding-threat-south-midwest-impacts

Considerably Warm North and Chilly South

Winter is quickly approaching, and the latest outlook from WSI, a division of The Weather Company, is suggesting considerably warmer-than-average conditions will affect parts of the country to at least start the winter season.

If you live in the north-central portion of the country and thought that the early-season blast of snow and cold from Winter Storm Bella was a sign of things to come, not so fast.

There are signs that December could be significantly warmer than average from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes.

To the south, near to slightly below average temperatures are forecast across parts of the Southwest, southern Plains and western Gulf Coast for the beginning of winter. Cooler-than average conditions may later spread further east and northeast into January and February, reaching the eastern third of the country in the process.

The strong El Niño event currently underway is a big player in the winter forecast. Stronger El Niño winters tend to favor cooler conditions across the South with warmer than average temperatures in the North.

With this El Niño the strongest in 18 years and nearing its peak and considerable agreement from computer model guidance, there is increasing confidence in such a temperature pattern.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-temperature-outlook-update-november-2015-2016

Hurricane Joaquin Moving Away From Bermuda

Hurricane Joaquin is now moving away from Bermuda, after lashing the archipelago with wind gusts over 60 mph and heavy rainfall on Sunday.

The tropical storm warning has been discontinued for Bermuda as conditions are improving.

Joaquin is now forecast to head across the open northern Atlantic Ocean while transitioning to a non-tropical low pressure system by early Wednesday.

Winds gusted frequently over 50 mph Sunday in Bermuda, with the strongest official wind gust reaching 64 mph at the Bermuda International Airport shortly before 9 p.m. Gusts over 50 mph continued in Bermuda as of early Monday morning.

Although rainfall and winds will diminish through Monday in Bermuda, high surf was expected to continue for the next day or so.

Hurricane Joaquin Information

The latest statistics as provided by NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

Flood Threat Continues in Carolinas

Portions of South Carolina have seen more than 20 inches of rain from this storm, and widespread totals of a foot or more cover much of an area bounded by Interstate 26 on the west, Interstate 20 on the north and the Atlantic Ocean on the south and east.

The top rainfall total so far is 26.88 inches near Boone Hall Plantation to the northeast of Charleston in the Mount Pleasant area.

The Weather Underground rain gauge in Dalzell, South Carolina, had received 21.66 inches of rain Sunday as of 9:46 p.m. By comparison, the official 24-hour rainfall record for the entire state of South Carolina is 14.80 inches set during Hurricane Floyd in Myrtle Beach on Sept. 16, 1999.

Gills Creek, in Columbia, South Carolina measured 16.61 inches of rain in about 17 hours on Sunday and just over 20 inches total since Friday.

There will likely be several candidates for replacing the official record, and it typically takes several months for NOAA's State Climate Extremes Committee to certify new state records.

Charleston International Airport broke its all-time calendar day rainfall record with 11.50 inches on Saturday. The storm-total rainfall (Oct. 1-4) through Sunday was 17.29 inches, which makes it the wettest October on record at that location, crushing the old record of 12.11 inches in October 1994. This also ranks as the fourth wettest month on record overall.

Rainfall Amounts This Month

A graphic showing total rainfall amounts since Oct. 1, in inches.

Downtown Charleston has logged a storm rainfall total of 16.29 inches through Sunday, including 9.25 inches on Saturday alone. This is now the wettest October on record in downtown Charleston, surpassing the previous record of 11.59 inches in 1959.

Gills Creek had risen to 17 feet Sunday morning before it stopped reporting, easily topping the previous record crest for that gauge of 9.43 feet on July 24, 1997. The National Weather Service in Columbia said the reason the gauge stopped reporting was because it was swept away in the floodwaters. The Smith Branch at North Main Street in Columbia crested at 18.87 feet late Sunday morning, topping the previous record crest of 15.12 feet on July 22, 2013. 

The first landslide of this flood event blocked a road near Old Fort, North Carolina, east of Asheville, early Saturday afternoon. The nearby Catawba River reached levels seen during Hurricane Frances in 2004, according to local emergency management. A combination of gusty winds and wet soils has also led to some downed trees in South Carolina and northeast Georgia.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/soaking-weather-pattern-east-flooding