Sunday, November 29, 2015

Watching the Atlantic for Possible Tropical Development Near the Bahamas

The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet, and an area of low pressure dubbed Invest 94-L developed into Tropical Depression Twelve Sunday night. 
Since Hurricane Joaquin dissipated just about a month ago, the tropics have been quiet in the North Atlantic. A persistent pattern characterized by record levels of wind shear has been a driving force in inhibiting tropical development this season.

November Tropical Clim

The Atlantic hurricane season officially comes to an end on Nov. 30. With the ocean cooling from north to south, particularly at the mid-latitudes, the formation zone for tropical systems shrinks.
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Although the Gulf of Mexico stays relatively warm through much of the month, historically, as the jet stream shifts south, the environment tends to become increasingly hostile due to stronger wind shear.
In the period of record from 1851 to 2014, no tropical storm or hurricane has impacted the western Gulf Coast from Texas to Mississippi.
To the southeast, systems that do develop across the Caribbean can gain some organization, as the area has supported such late-season hurricanes as Kate in 1985 and Michelle in 2001. The former became the latest landfalling hurricane in Florida’s history on Nov. 21.
Otherwise, due to increasing upper level flow, any system that does develop tends to quickly turn north and northeast into the open Atlantic and away from the United States.
Since 1851, Florida has been impacted by eight tropical storms and hurricanes in November. The only other states with more than one impact were also in the Southeast: Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-development-atlantic-nov-2015

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