Limited Severe Weather Threat Over Gulf Coast States; Flash Flooding Possible

Severe Weather Forecast

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Short-Term Thunderstorm Forecast

Areas shaded in red indicate the greatest chance of severe thunderstorms. Mainly non-severe thunderstorms are expected in the orange area.

Rain and thunderstorms will focus along a cold front stretching from the Tennessee to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This cold front will push eastward on Friday into the Northeast and Deep South.

Winds topping 100 mph are roaring from the southwest some 20,000 feet above ground level over a zone from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. Winds of 60 mph are blowing just a few thousand feet above ground level in parts of that corridor. 

As thunderstorms erupt, they could pull some of that wind momentum down to ground level, bringing potentially damaging winds.

The most unstable air is parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, well to the south of the strongest wind energy aloft. Still, that instability could have enough of a favorable environment to support isolated severe thunderstorms through Friday evening.

Here's the severe weather forecast through the weekend.

Friday

• Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may cause locally damaging winds and spotty hail from southeastern Texas and Louisiana eastward into the southern half of Mississippi and central to southern Alabama.
• Given the limited instability, the main threat with any of the more robust storms will be locally damaging winds.
• As the frontal system stalls out, clusters of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain may trigger flash flooding into Friday night from Alabama, westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of Texas. 

This Weekend

• The risk of severe thunderstorms decreases this weekend as there will be limited instability.
• An isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Saturday from Georgia into South Carolina.
• Heavy rain is also expected, especially on Saturday morning, in eastern Texas, Louisiana, central Mississippi and northern Alabama.
• Thunderstorms are likely in Florida on Sunday, as the cold front continues to push southward, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.